With the holiday season fast approaching, we’re witnessing the annual surge in Christmas music, spearheaded by Mariah Carey’s legendary hit, All I Want for Christmas Is You. For over two decades, Mariah’s song has been synonymous with the festive period, breaking records on streaming platforms and becoming a cornerstone of Christmas culture.

But as we approach 2024, an interesting trend is emerging: while Carey remains dominant, challengers like Wham!’s Last Christmas are closing the gap. For now, though, Mariah’s crown remains intact.

Mariah Carey: the Queen of Christmas

An unstoppable domination

All I Want for Christmas Is You (AIWFCIY) continues to reign as the undisputed leader of holiday music. Since the early days of streaming, her numbers have grown substantially year after year, reflecting her track’s continued popularity and its status as a global holiday staple.

In 2014, when Spotify was still gaining traction, the song was already making waves during the holiday season. At that time, playlists weren’t as organized as they are today, and Christmas music was still primarily a North American phenomenon. As a result, its impact wasn’t as large.

In fact, AIWFCIY peaked at #21 on Spotify's 2013 weekly Christmas chart, and #24 in 2014. Perhaps more surprisingly, Wham!'s Last Christmas outperformed it, reaching #10 and #18 in those years, respectively.

In 2015, after the underperformance of her previous studio album, Mariah Carey signed a new deal with Sony Music's Epic Records. Initially, the focus was on her back catalog, with residency shows at Caesars Palace to promote a new compilation, #1 to Infinity. That November, a children’s book based on AIWFCIY became a bestseller.

The book's success had a noticeable impact on the song, too. While Last Christmas peaked again at #18, the same position it reached the previous year, Carey's track surged to #6. In the US, starting that year, the song enjoyed a remarkable 43-week streak at #1 in the Holiday 100 ranking, a run spanning several years.

AIWFCIY continued to climb in 2017 after the release of the movie adaptation of Carey’s children's book. That year, the song finally broke into the US Top 10, peaking at #3. On Spotify, it made history by reaching #1 globally on December 23, topping the charts for three consecutive days, before securing the top spot in the weekly chart in 2018.

As for its streaming numbers, they’ve continued to soar each season. In the last week of November 2019, the track recorded 12.6 million streams. From 2020 to 2023, those numbers skyrocketed from 17.0 million to 24.2 million, 27.7 million, and 33.7 million, respectively. Fast forward to December 2023, and the song set a new all-time record by reaching 23.7 million streams in a single day on December 24. Mariah Carey seemed unstoppable in her reign as the Queen of Christmas.

Shifting tides: early signs of AIWFCIY losing ground?

A couple of weeks ago, Red One the first major Christmas-themed movie release of the season dropped, featuring a mix of holiday classics - 8 in total, plus various theme songs. Among them are two Carey tracks: Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) and Santa Claus Is Comin' to Town.

Notably, All I Want for Christmas Is You is absent from the list, which is a telling sign of a shift. It reflects a certain fatigue surrounding the song. Marketers may still love it, but they can't rely on the obvious choice every time. TV ads and movies’ exposure is key to ensuring a Christmas classic stays relevant.

This situation is reflected in the numbers as well. As previously mentioned, AIWFCIY topped the US holiday chart for 43 consecutive weeks from 2015 until 2023. However, that lead came to an unexpected end when Brenda Lee’s Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree took the #1 position for two weeks in December 2023. Impressively, Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree not only led the holiday chart but also became the oldest song ever to top the Hot 100.

In the UK, Last Christmas by Wham! has been consistently gaining on and surpassing Carey’s track. In 2022, Last Christmas knocked AIWFCIY off the top spot, and it maintained its dominance in 2023, holding #1 for a solid four weeks.

Another sign of fatigue for AIWFCIY is seen in its own performance. We already established that in November 2019, the song recorded 12.6 million streams, a figure that had risen to 33.7 million in 2023. But for 2024, the latest weekly data shows 28.9 million streams, representing a 14.2% drop compared to the same week the previous year.

Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone's Fortnight claimed the all-time record for single day streams on April 19 2024, with 25.2 million plays on Spotify. Expectations were that the record would be broken again on December 24 by Carey. Now, it looks unlikely.

Everything isn't black and white. Brenda Lee is nowhere near as global as Mariah Carey, and the latter regained its US #1 spot once Christmas was in full swing. Last Christmas has always been particularly strong in the UK. And a week ago, AIWFCIY's streams were down only 1.3% compared to the same week last year, which suggests the 14.2% drop could be partially influenced by the release of Kendrick Lamar's GNX. Also, the same week last year was two days closer to Christmas, which is a significant difference at this level.

A comparative study of Christmas classics

A review in numbers of the big five

To assess whether Mariah Carey can continue to hold the crown, it’s useful to compare her track with the competition. The chart below showcases the performance of the five biggest Christmas songs over the last five years.

This analysis is based on various data points, including streams from November 1st, the seven weeks leading up to Christmas, and daily streams from December 20th to December 25th. It provides a fascinating insight into the evolution of these holiday classics.

The first obvious takeway is the undisputed domination of Mariah Carey, as she leads in 75 out of 75 data points. It’s also clear that her song performs particularly strongly earlier in the season. In concrete words, AIWFCIY has a stronger organic appeal, even as the other tracks catch up as playlists begin to gain momentum.

Pros and cons from the main contenders

Wham!’s Last Christmas: a nostalgic challenger

Wham!’s Last Christmas remains a strong contender, consistently ranking second to Carey’s track. The song’s streams have been steadily increasing each year, peaking at 94% of AIWFCIY’s streams in 2023, compared to 84% in 2019. So far this season, it is off to a stronger start too, 2% closer compared to last year's relative scores at the same moment.

As 2024 marks the 40th anniversary of Last Christmas, the song is likely to see renewed interest, thanks to special anniversary promotions and fresh marketing pushes. While it’s unlikely to dethrone Mariah entirely, it will solidify its position as the second most popular Christmas track on streaming platforms. And as it continues to get closer, moving ahead may not be that much of a stretch anymore in the upcoming seasons.

Brenda Lee and Bobby Helms: timeless but capped

Other classics, such as Brenda Lee’s Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree and Bobby Helms’ Jingle Bell Rock have also performed admirably in the streaming era. Notably, they have been increasing even faster than Mariah's or Wham!'s hits.

Brenda Lee’s song has gone from 6.1 million streams on Christmas Eve 2019 to 19.0 million streams on Christmas Eve 2023. However, the song’s year-on-year growth plateaued last year. After recording 62% of Mariah's streams at its best in 2019, it increased to 92% in 2022, only to go back to 89% last year.

More concretely, the song gets close when it gets a huge boost on December 25, every year. It seems that its older audience give it an edge for the real day of Christmas, rather than the celebrations on the previous evening. Even if numbers are stalling a bit, the general public awareness of the track is obviously much higher than some years ago. While the song is unlikely to ever really dominate a Christmas season, do not rule it out to break AIWFCIY's hegemony on December 25 at some point.

Similarly, Bobby Helms’ Jingle Bell Rock has seen its streaming numbers peak at 15.8 million streams on December 24, 2023. While it’s a perennial favorite, its growth has been more modest compared to Brenda Lee, and it registered a significant drop last year. These songs remain indispensable parts of holiday playlists but lack the upward trajectory needed to pose a serious challenge to Mariah's hit.

Ariana Grande: the modern contender

Ariana Grande’s Santa Tell Me is the youngest of the top contenders. In 2020, as the singer was smashing with new music, Santa Tell Me impressed during the christmas season, going as high as 74% of Carey's results. In a similar way to the latter, it starts gaining traction early in the season, proving its organic appeal.

On surface, it looks like its chances are over. The song has been going down - relatively speaking - from 2021 onwards. In fact, 2024 could be a breakout year for Grande. Indeed, she has a starring role in the blockbuster musical Wicked, which grossed $112 million in its first weekend in the US. This new visibility and cultural influence are set to soar during the holiday season.

After the movie's first week, the song is 8% closer to AIWFCIY than last year. While Santa Tell Me is unlikely to match the numbers of Carey's classic, it could reach new heights.

Moreover, we must not overlook the traditional significance of Christmas, with its deep-rooted memories that are passed down through generations. As time goes on, it's likely that Santa Tell Me will continue to grow in popularity, gaining even more resonance as it becomes a cherished part of holiday traditions.

Why other classics won’t challenge Mariah

Though holiday classics by Michael Bublé, Andy Williams, Dean Martin, José Feliciano, and Kelly Clarkson remain staples of festive playlists, they lack the streaming momentum seen with Mariah Carey or Wham!.

Michael Bublé’s It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas consistently performs well but hasn’t shown the same explosive growth. Similarly, Andy Williams’ It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year and Dean Martin’s Let It Snow! enjoy consistent streams but appeal to a narrower, older demographic.

José Feliciano’s "Feliz Navidad" is another beloved holiday classic, but its bilingual nature and niche appeal limit its potential to rival Mariah in global streaming numbers. Kelly Clarkson’s "Underneath the Tree" has gained a loyal following since its release in 2013 but remains a distant competitor. None of these songs have demonstrated the sustained growth necessary to enter the upper echelon of holiday streaming dominance.

Forecasting the future: can Mariah stay on top?

The holiday music landscape is undeniably competitive, but Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas Is You shows little signs of relinquishing its throne for now despite some negative indicators. The song’s cultural ubiquity, ensures it remains the gold standard for Christmas hits.

The next couple of years will tell us if Wham!’s Last Christmas is closing the gap thanks to a peak momentum, or if it will really become the new leader. If not, more recent songs like Santa Tell Me, or Sia's Snowman will be the main contenders, but they first need to mature enough to impact multiple generations. We are completely ruling out new releases, as it's near impossible for a song to install itself as a classic straight away.

Chances are that despite the competition, All I Want for Christmas Is You will continue to be the definitive Christmas song. And Mariah Carey remains the undisputed Queen of Christmas.