Forum
my current estimates:
total pure: 2.545m (+630k)
Chinese downloads: 750k (+140k)
digital singles: 700k (+480k): 105k EAS
Total: 7.421M with today's streaming numbers
Chinese downloads is 706,000 currently. And I think non chinese pure is a bit underestimated, I'm thinking itll be closer to 2.65m-2.7m
You're right actually if the proportion of US/global pure has stayed the same since release week the total non-chinese sales would be 2.7M as the album has now sold 1.974M in the US. But it could have very well been more front loaded in other countries
She might pass Celine but there is no way she will pass Madonna in 10 years time given the fact that she had to sell another 106 million records to catch up with Madonna & I can't see a pop star like Taylor continuing to be relevant for another 10 years time. She's at the top right now but her days at the top are counting. Might have 1 or 2 album that can reach another 10 million mark but I doubted she can go further than that. Also, bare in mind Madonna has 4 albums with 20 million and above sales. 1 of them has already reached 40 million sales, True Blue at 37 million. Madonna's peak was just way bigger, Taylor's biggest album is 1989 with 24 million. Even if the album never stop selling I doubted it will ever add another 10 million sales. While Madonna & Taylor's sales trajectory sounds similar, as in Madonna has 9, 10 million albums sales and Taylor seems likely to have 9 album selling above 10 million in the future. Madonna's biggest albums was just way bigger so the total sales is always gonna favor Madonna.
"1989" can reach 40 million mark to the end of this decade . Remember , that "1989 (TV)" is not released .
There are a lot of aspect that just aren't true. It was long believed Taylor was "at the top" during Fearless, then again during 1989, until she essentially repeaked with Midnights 16 years into her career. Taylor's streams/sales could STABILIZE not even gain at all, and Taylor would still pass Madonna in 6 years. Regarding album sales, I think you lose context of the fact that Madonna's albums have had DECADES and not YEARS to build up to 20m, 30m, 40m units. Taylor is a behemoth, largely unmatched by her peers, and to not see the clear pattern of consistent and constant gain amongst her past and present releases means you aren't looking.
My question to you is where is the assumption that her days are counted coming from?
At it's current rate not including 1989 TV it will easily cross 40m by 2030. Unless streams collapsed super randomly and suddenly (which doesn't seem like it'll happen anytime soon) it's almost inevitable.
Based on history no pop artist can pull her number 30 years into their career like she did. That is just ridiculous. It took her 13 years to reach 100 million at a time when she was way bigger than she is today. Midnight isn't nearly as big as 1989 or Fearless and its unrealistic to think she would pull several more 10 million albums in the next 10 years multiple times. To say that she can pass Madonna in 10 years is quite delusional since Taylor at her peak took 13 years to reach 100 million let alone and ageing Taylor.
Taylor‘s next 5 years will easily have an average of 10 Billion streams on Spotify (this year 15 Billion and next 4 i predict at least 35 Billion). That means 50 Million units. Her album sales will be in the Millions if she releases the rerecordings and 1-2 more studio albums until 2028. 200M CSPC. So tell me from there onwards how her annual streams will decline, because even 4 Billion streams per year would put her on track to pass Madonna one day.
Midnights may not as big as Fearless or 1989 but bare in mind that 2022 was Taylor's most successful year in her entire career when you count all her discography. She pulled 22M+ album units throughout the year based on Universal report, that's a fact. And she's on right track to have bigger Spotify stream this year, and we all know that her rereleases will give significant boost to her entire discography. 100M+ gap between her and Madonna looks impossible but when you consider her momentum, it's doable in fact she doesn't need 10 years, 7-8 years is more realistic. It's extremely hard to maintain longevity but guess what Taylor is an anomaly.
She's in her commercial peak right now which is why she is moving units faster than she did during her first 13 years. Midnights might not be bigger than those albums but Taylor herself certainly is. Not everybody peaks right away and stans usually forget that. Streaming has shown the importance of a good and timeless catalog and Taylor is clearly benefitting the most. Comparing Taylor to other pop stars is just wrong and honestly tells us you have no idea about anything related to her career or her consumption trends. Based on history is useless in this case considering she's an outlier and making HER own history. A small piece of advice, you're better off comparing her to rock bands like Pink Floyd, Coldplay, Queen, or The Beatles than the Madonna's or Mariah Carey's of the world.
