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That's not necessarily true. The beauty of the streaming era is having a smash hit isn't necessary to drive album sales like it used to be. Recurrent streams are far more indicative of who will pull ahead of who in the long run. To say Taylor won't garner more CSPSC ever seems misguided because if you look at the recurrent Spotify daily numbers, Taylor's would either need to collapse by 90% or Madonna's will have to increase tenfold. Not to mention the millions of pure Taylor is moving yearly.
If anything the lack of the need for a smash hit can be seen by Enchanted (2010 album track) gaining more daily streams than some of the biggest smash hits of the past couple years (Bad guy, rockstar, Senorita, etc.).
Sorry to say but 2021 was Taylor biggest consumtion year ever in US (I don’t have data ww but may too). Her albums are less bigger than 1989, Red or Fearless but everything in her discography is selling well and her re-recordings are smashing
Yeah, I wuold say that Taylor maybe is one of the few or only actual artist that not need a smash popular hit for been in the top and gained massive sales, thanks to his very strong catalogue that her build and the big powerful fan group she have.
I did not write that comment. My account was hacked or its a different account. You can see by the way I write. I have no idea who wrote that.
But back to the original question, Taylor is not moving millions of pure sales. She doesn't have hits at the moment, and while her streams are very good, I think she'll end up above Mariah, and she will challenge Celine.
Madonna though, is a very special case. She has been producing blockbusters 25 years into her career. I don't know if Taylor can do it. It's a big IF as someone else said here.
If she gets very successful albums later on, I may change my mind, but at the moment, she doesn't have a chance in my opinion as her old catalogue alone won't get her near Madonna, regardless of how well it sells.
I am a different person.
I just wanted to make things clear as fans are thinking CSPC units is official it's website one method for analysis on which they work very hard.
IFPI is starting to go in the same direction as they released their newly released global album all format chart last year. Annual Global Recording Artist is also determined based on total equivalent album units.
In relation to Taylor possibly surpassing Madonna, the future is uncertain, she may or may not do it. But if you will ask me, I don't think she will. Taylor already reached her peak. Her sales are declining. What's giving her million of units now is her consistent release of albums annually. If anything, her having to re-record her past albums is a blessing. It allows her to break chart records, boost her streams, and shift more units every year.
In 2021 Taylor sold 725k+ pure sales in China (which count fully via the new Chinese pure methodology for CSPSC), and moved 1.77m pure in the US from just her 4 albums albums that cleared the top 50 YTD units (Via Hits DD YTD Overall Activity). Taylor likely very easily crossed 3m global pure sales for 2021. She doesn't have a strong smash at the moment but again when your back catalogue does over 20k CSPSC daily from audio streams alone (excl Red TV), having hits wouldn't change the end result just speed it up.
She sells digital copies in China.
This is not the same as selling physical albums.
I am not denying that what I am trying to say is that CSPC formula is not official it's their own analysis giving the popularity of an album IFPI doesn't give you global SPS because there is no way of calculating my point still stands on this.
11475 YT views = 1 album unit is website's own analysis and nothing else. Taylor is not going anywhere and she will continue to move and sale albums but CSPC is a own derived method it doesn't mean it's 'outselling' other artist.
IFPI is starting to move is another point, it is impossible for every country to come under IFPI counter especially Asian countries there are free members vs paid members it will become very complicated for IFPI to calculate all this though anything can happen but I don't see it.
So by that interpretation what is the point of looking at an artists success at all? If newer artists can never outsell because the sales aren't documented pure sales, then why even bother keeping track? We are on a website with a method, and that is all we are talking about. If anything if we use some IFPI/Label standard which uses different methodologies to calculate streaming units, Taylor's overall "units" would be way higher than her CSPSC, compared to a marginal gain for Madonna.
I didn't say a newer artist cannot outsell older lol, I said there is no Worldwide SPS to begin with only some countries have with their own free vs paid streams analysis! Hardly asian countries have anything under SPS and Asians are the most populated countries this was just one example I was quoting. Website is giving us an analysis of popularity. I never said Taylor can't 'outsell' I just said this is a self derived formula.
When IFPI comes with a worldwide SPS then let me know, because you are saying if not with CSPC Taylor SPS will be more can you like prove that?
Why though? Labels already differentiate between free and paid streams for their own unit calculations, and IFPI is driven by reporting from labels. It just becomes a matter of IFPI asking labels for the right information to make their own calculations, it's actually quite simple.
Let's see when whole world comes under IFPI which I don't see anytime happening every country is different and don't really care about SPS units. I am just saying this is their own derived analysis and now WW rule simple as that.
https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/dua-lipa-morgan-wallen-us-2021-mrc-data-1235016079/
MRC Data (formerly known as Nielsen Music) has released full report for 2021. Since the last update by the admin was on May 25 last year, Taylor has gained 1.344M pure sales from these four albums in the USA alone :
Red TV - 621,000
evermore - 392,000
Fearless TV - 171,000
folklore - 160,000
Additionally, her old catalogue up to Lover have sold 385,000 pure sales throughout entire 2021 and since the last update was half of the year then, it can be estimated that she has pulled roughly 190,000 after May 25 which bring total pure sales to 1.534M in the USA. Her US sales:Global sales for her discography ranging by factor of 0.60-0.75 so it can be assumed that she pulled another 383,000-613,000 pure sales from the rest of the world, bringing total pure sales worldwide including the USA to 1.917M-2.147M. So yeah, this pretty much confirmed that she has surpassed 110M CSPC (the current stat is 108.642M).
Now lets talk about China market. I'm not sure how the admin will update the new formula, is U$3.49 or 22.25 Yuan (the current one is 50 Yuan iirc) will be the new standard considering it's the minimum price to be counted for BB200? If so then, I expect another big updates for Chinese downloads for Taylor considering the bias current formula ignores the weaker purchasing power factor.
I just feel like we are at the point in the discussion where the only thing you can say to substantiate your claim is to start bringing up IFPI and other industry standards when the ORIGINAL conversation is about CSPC.
Anything can happen and Taylor is certainly the most consistent female singer of the past 15 years. She will probably get to Barbra sooner or later, cause Streisand's streaming numbers are dreadful, she only has one song over 100 mln plays on Spotify and it pass the symbolic threshold only a few weeks ago, however, after getting Barbra, which will still require years, I don't think it will be easy passing the other 4
-Whitney Houston has healthy streaming numbers and has a couple of songs that will be perennial hit (I wanna dance with somebody and I will always love you) and perennial feature of any 80's and 90's revival respectively. Does Taylor have any song in her catalogue that will pull those numbers 30 years after their release? I might be biased but I don't think she has anything like that. Whtiney already had a posthomous hit with "Higher Love" and I think that there are more potential "posthumous hits" in her back catalogue waiting to be exploited. Plus Whitney's life is pure biopic material. It's not a matter of "if", it's a matter of "when" they will make a movie out of her life and it will be a smash. Whitney's life is pure Hollywood material and a biopic it will certainly boost her streaming numbers
-Mariah Carey has that perennial Christmas smash that yearly re-enters worldwide charts and it probably will do it until the end of times. Does Taylor have anything like that in her catalog? Does she have something that will pull 500 mln stream yearly for the rest of human history? Also even Mariah has an interesting life story to tell. Yes, "Glitter" was a bomb, but I think sooner or later someone will probably notice that there is a big potential for a powerful biopic
-Celine Dion is probably the one who will struggle more in the next years. "My Heart Will Go On" will probably remain her only song that the general public care in the future and still, it underperforms Mariah's and Whitney's signature hits. And honestly, I don't even see her as a particular strong subject for a biopic, but still the mountain that Taylor has to climb to get to her is high, maybe too high even for her
-Madonna has struggle with streaming as we all know but anytime an 80's revival pops up, she will be involved and have periodical boost of her numbers. Plus, again, a biopic will come sooner or later and it might help her and still her numbers are double than those of Taylor Swift, if Taylor does it it might be compared to the Everest
Another big question is, will Taylor's catalog still perform so strong as today 20 or 30 years from now, or will the test of time reduce her catalogue appeal to a few songs? Cause this is the key. Right now Taylor's catalogue naturally outperforms those of the big four, but, will it be the same 15, 20 or 30 years from now? Or will she settle to their same numbers, or perhaps even lower numbers when Taylor will be, like them, an old glory? Right now the big four, way past their prime, still pull something like 1-1.5 mln EAS per year, will Taylor be able to pull those numbers 15, 20, 30 years from now?
The only possible answer is "wait and see" what the test of time will tell
pop radio has already left taylor behind, she hadn't had a hit there since Delicate
Radio really doesn't have the same weighting on the creation of hits in today's music world, especially given the clear impact of tik tok and promotion via streaming platforms. Regarding the comment you're replying to, you can see the minimal impact. True Taylor hasn't had a radio hit since delicate, yet she is still pulling the biggest streaming numbers for a female artist on Spotify by far, with several releases expected this year.
And Delicate was only a hit in the US.
Worldwide she didn't have a hit since Look What You Made Me Do and that's pushing it calling it a hit WW because it had no longetivity. She truly fell of her perch at Reputation.
Her sales for Folklore were good, considering it's genre, but releasing Evermore was a mistake as it added very little to her career.
She must release something commercial that will sell now if she wants to get inside the top 3 of biggest female artists
Untrue it was pretty big in Asia which doesn't have weekly charts to reflect singles success, I wouldn't call someone who broke the biggest debuts for a female day twice someone who is off their perch. her new projects post reputation add 17m+ CSPSC (accounting for pure sales yet to be added), and she is moving at a rate of 15m+ CSPSC, a large chunk of which is her back catalogue. What it seems to me is that you make a lot of statements without actually bothering to go and look at any numbers to substantiate your claims. I'm sure when she released evermore without physicals on its debut week the last thing on her mind was "this project is gonna add so little to my CSPSC total."
She does well on streaming overall, but she never had a big streaming album. Ariana, Dua, Rihanna, Billie and Olivia all have a much bigger album than Taylor does on Streaming.
Why? She lacks HITS. And this is a fact, not an opinion.
This is something she needs to work on. She has the benefit of releasing many albums atm, but individually her albums past 1989 are NOT big.
After her re-recordings era ENDS, her streaming will decrease, then we will see if she can pull a brand new hit album, if she will, she has a shot at the big 3, if not, she will be in top 5,but that's it.
i personally don't see evermore as a mistake as it's one of her best albums quality wise... + despite its low sales i don't think it had a negative imoact on whatever new studio album she's going to release after it
I mean it's only been out for a year, its at 3.5m CSPSC (has a couple hundred thousand pure + change in chinese pure weighting in the formula that hasn't been fixed yet), and it's streams have already reached their low and it has started to see a the stream gain you'd expect from a back catalogue.
