# CSPC: Ed Sheeran Popularity Analysis

##### The Commensurate Sales to Popularity Concept (CSPC)

There are two ways to understand this revolutionary concept. The first is the Scribe video posted below. If you are unaware of the CSPC method, you will get the full idea within just a few minutes.

If you are a mathematical person, and want to know the full method as well as formulas, you can read the full introduction article.

Now let’s get into the artist’s sales figures in detail in order to apply this concept and define the act’s true popularity!

## 21 thoughts on “CSPC: Ed Sheeran Popularity Analysis”

1. beysus says:

Oh wow. Impressive is the least I can say here.
6M for an album and 8M for a single is unheard of in these days (for a non-Adele act instead).
I can see Divide ending up as one of the most successful albums of all time in 5 years.

2. Generis says:

The inflation it’s HUGE..
Once again you alterating others artist (beneficiating) them.
Divide didn’t sold 420k in Australia when that certification (6xP) includes shipements and sps as well, it sold in 10 weeks 238k units, debuted with 90k but was certified 2xP due shippements……
The numbers in germany/france are just astronomical inflated..
“Shape of you” did 1.4M units in germany (400k pure) so 1M x 150 = 150,000,000 streams for that song alone.. divided by 1500 = 100k units album, it’s certified 5xgold (500k a month ago) and you said it sold 550k “pure”.. 250k-300k it’s more realistic.. in france i doubt it reached 200k

“+” at 5M? Didn’t “ifpi” report at 2012 1.7M shippements, 2013: N/A and 2011 N/A.. There don’t aply ifpi numbers with him it seems..

X from 8m to 8.5m even when the 8m number was high

I can’t understand how did x increased 3M units

1. Hi Generis!

There is no inflation as you can guess.

– Australia:
Their SPS units aren’t fully SPS as mentioned by the Billboard since they include no downloads, so their share are much lower. Then, streaming has been included into their album chart only in May 2017. The 6xP award is from mid-November while it shot to #1 at Christmas, the Billboard already refered to it as a 7xP album in their Year-end summary article. It most likely shipped over 500k units overall to date, among which from 15% to 20% are estimated to come from streams, which led to the 425k figure.

– France:
Over the counter sales are up to exactly 400k (387k in 2017, 13k in first week of 2018) so how can 425k units shipped to date be inflated? The comment “I doubt it reached 200k” is beyond ridiculous.

– Germany:
Only premium-users streams count for album sales there. The album is already certified 3xP, not 5xG anymore, with shipments anywhere from 600k to 700k – most likely in the upper end since it spent holiday season high on charts here as well. There is no way it did “250-300k”. No need to say Ed always sells more with both singles and albums in Germany than in France. Anything under half a million units makes no sense.

– Plus / IFPI:
How can you use the annual figure for ONE year with an album that sold most of its units as a back catalogue album?
In the US, Plus sold 329,897 units in 2012, yet it currently stands on 1265k, meaning barely 26% come from 2012.
In the UK, Plus sold 784,100 units in 2012, yet it currently stands on 2325k, meaning barely 33% come from 2012, the country where his success was the most immediate.
Now try to multiply 1,7 million by 3/4 to see the results… The yearly breakdown of the album stands as below:
2011: 925,000
2012: 1,740,000
2013: 800,000
2014: 525,000
2015: 510,000
2016: 200,000
2017: 310,000

– X:
How was 8m high since it shipped 7,9 million by the end of 2015 as per the IFPI? Then, how is a 500k increase in 15 months an inflation when it sold so much in 2017? The US represent 27% of its sales and it sold 145,000 units in 2017 alone there.
The increase of 3 million EAS by X overall is simply due to astronomical streams during the year. It went from 3,36 billion streams on Spotify as per the last article to 4,99 billion now, meaning more than 100 million streams per month on Spotify alone during the 15 months time frame, e.g. some 107,000 EAS per month with only Audio streams. There is a reason if the album ended 2017 inside the Top 10 of the year in various key markets.

Once again, I will suggest you to get your facts right before trolling with “the inflation it’s huge” type of comments.

1. Generis says:

Australia:
Ok it was certified 6xP in november, but from those numbers it include at least 100k shipements and the sps numbers (lets say 50k) if it sold 70k more units during december it also include strong sps thanks to perfect smashing, i mean, big portion from those 70k are sps.. = 300k pure sales.

Germany:
And do you know the amount of the users premiun exist in germany? If you use 50% even i think could be more.. Guessing it has 500M streams /1500 = 335k units / 2 = 170k units + shippements, how did it sold 550k knowing it’s certified 3xP?

France:
It debuted with 40k if your estimate it’s “correct” means he increased 100% compared to the debut, a record?
For example:
In the US debuted with 320k, now 1.2M (increased 27%)
Canada: debuted with 50k, now 190k (+35%)
UK: 600k debut, now 2.2M ( +37%) *his biggest market*
Now france..40k to 425k (+103) ABSURD!!!!!!
Meanwhile.. (Using the meassure +35%) = 140k
Din’t he debuted with 75k in germany (+35%) = 265k

About plus, i would love to see the ifpi numbers below to the top 50.

1. Why the hell don’t you check the data rather than calling facts “ABSURD!!!!!”? It’s a fact that Divide has 400k pure sales in France to date, it is fully documented, you are barely spreading ignorance at the moment.

You go on with dumb calculations about Germany, putting 100% of Shape of You streams into the album while streams from the top 2 tracks are dropped to the average of the next 10 tracks. So it doesn’t matter at all if SOY got 500m streams or 5 billion. In fact, SOY has 9,28 times more streams than tracks 3-12 on WW Spotify, so even if it got 500m premium streams from Germany, a mere 54m will be counted.

Your assumptions are just so ridiculously stupid like 100k additional shipments in early November in Australia. Come on, when downloads make up such a large part of pure sales nowadays, how can you consider so many copies left on the shelves? “Big portion” from SPS? How do streaming, which is linearized over a long period, makes up a “big portion” of sales at Christmas? In the UK, a country where charts use almost the same methodology as in Australia, streams accounted for less than 10% of Divide units in December. Check facts rather than going into wild assumptions.

Plus, I always made very clear that all pure sales figures are net shipments to date, not guessed retail sales which are only good for uneducated people who doesn’t really understand chart and sales. ChartMasters isn’t aimed to be a cheap Mediatraffic-like website.

1. Lennox. says:

Calling that users calculations “dumb”, and “pathetic” and then calling him ignorant. LMAO. How old are you? And isnt this your website, you run it, so why the bitterness?

Just respond and then keep it moving. LOL!

3. isaiah says:

Wow, his numbers are truly incredible. All of this time I believed that Adele and Taylor Swift were head and shoulders the biggest-selling and most successful artists of this decade, but it seems to be otherwise.

So behind those big three who do you believe is the fourth biggest of the 2010’s? Rihanna, Justin Bieber, Bruno Mars, Drake, etc…?

1. Hi Isaiah!

The average per release of Adele / Ed Sheeran / Taylor Swift is truly incredible but in terms of overall value produced during the decade the battle is much closer than we can guess. Swift is on 42/43 million for the decade while Drake is well over 50 million and Bruno is over 48 million by now, Rihanna is ahead of Swift as well. The top artists of the 10s so far in overall units weighted in equivalent album sales is:
2 – Drake
3 – Bruno Mars
4-7 – Rihanna
4-7 – Ed Sheeran
4-7 – One Direction
4-7 – Justin Bieber
8 – Taylor Swift

Acts 4-7 are all very close so it can change any day / would require complete researches at the same date for all to establish a definitive ranking. Hard who closes the Top 10 although Katy Perry, Eminem and Coldplay are clear challengers.

1. Anthony Blanchard says:

Hi Isaiah!

To complete MJD’s answer, here are the figures that I have for the top 10 of 2010’s:
Adele – 64,5 millions EAS as of 07/2016
Drake – 52,3 millions EAS as of 08/2017
Rihanna – 51,4 millions EAS as of 11/2017
Bruno Mars – 46,3 millions EAS as of 10/2017
Ed Sheeran – 45,5 millions EAS as of 01/2018
One Direction – 44,5 millions EAS as of 05/2017
Justin Bieber – 42,3 millions EAS as of 08/2016
Taylor Swift – 41,4 millions EAS as of 10/2017
Eminem – 30,9 millions EAS as of 08/2016
Katy Perry – 29,7 millions EAS as of 07/2016

Hi! MJD @ Anthony!
So what are the ranking for the artist with the top total album sales this decade?

Anthony’s ranking uses all information from CSPC articles so it is fully valid minus sales achieved after their publication. I underestimated Rihanna by a few millions when checking quickly albums’ CSPC figures due to her immense Orphan singles in recent years.

2. RLAAMJR. says:

No Beyonce. Lol

Also, Justin Bieber’s last update is August of 2016. When updated, Bieber should be above Sheeran and possibly above Bruno Mars too.

Cant wait for JB’s update

3. Yayne says:

Hi Anthony, I think Lady Gaga sold more than Katy this decade. The fame sold more than half of its total in this decade.

What is the top 10 of the previous decade? Beatles sold more than Britney and Coldplay?

A top 10 by decades would be great for data collector. The billboard decade ránkings are ridiculous … They are airplay rankings…

1. Hi Yayne!

Figures are related to units achieved for all songs first released during the 10s. If we add back catalog units, all acts would be higher. For example, Eminem or Coldplay would be much, much higher on the list.

4. Nuclear dolphin says:

You know + has been certified double platinum in the US, yet you have sales at just 1.28 million, did they just ship way too much?

1. Hi Nuclear dolphin!

Plus was certified 2xP in the US thanks to SPS methodology, meaning with streams and download sales of singles. Its songs sold roughly 6,4 million downloads there, worth 640,000 album sales, plus streams. Its current Soundscan tally for pure album sales stands on 1,265,000 units, the figure of 1,28 million stand for pure sales alone, always expressed in shipment which explains the small gap.

5. Innocent Eyes says:

Impressive stats for Ed! Interested to see how his CSPC figures will look like at the end of the year.

Is Divide the biggest selling album (including streams) within a calendar year in the UK (after Adele’s 21 obviously)?

Have you got an idea how much it will have sold by the end of 2018 in the UK?

By the way, there’s a picture of The Eagles’ Hotel California on page 7 lol.

1. Hi IE!

Thanks for pointing that out haha, the pic is now replaced 😉

Yes, Divide is the strongest seller ever in one year after 21. The second biggest so far was Adele’s 25 at 2,495,899, followed by James Blunt’s Back to Bedlam at 2,367,758. I expect it to be anywhere from 3,2m to 3,4m in the UK by the end of the year.

6. RLAAMJR. says:

I have read something online commenting on JB’s 3 singles which took the top spot in us billboard and uk chart that it only stayed on top for a few weeks.

FYI, if Ed Sheeran released his album almost at the same time Adele released her album, i dont think Shape of You could stay on the top spot for 12 weeks.

7. 周旭 says:

Amazing！！！

8. Nathan says:

There is a lot of incredible work going into this……….for those that are being negative, why not have a healthy debate and ask questions instead of attacking?
There are many who appreciate all the work and although it should be as accurate as possible, let’s be positive and if something needs to be adjusted, approach it with respect.