CSPC: Selena Gomez Popularity Analysis

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Streaming Sales

Streaming is made up of two families – audio and video. Our CSPC methodology now includes both to better reflect the real popularity of each track. The main source of data for each avenue is respectively Spotify and YouTube. As detailed in the Fixing Log article, Spotify represents 132 million of the 212 million users of streaming platforms, while YouTube is pretty much the only video platform generating some revenue for the industry. Below is the equivalence set on the aforementioned article:

Audio Stream – 1500 plays equal 1 album unit
Video Stream – 11,750 views equal 1 album unit

Equivalent Albums Sales (EAS) = 212/132 * Spotify streams / 1500 + YouTube views / 11750

Streaming Part 1

When studying artists like One Direction and Justin Bieber we noticed how strong their entire discography was, including their album tracks. Teen acts tend to rely less on their big hits thanks to their devoted fan base. Surprisingly, Gomez fails to do well with her non-singles, some of which remain under 1 million streams to date on Spotify.

Her first two albums have two songs each inside the 15 to 30 million range on Spotify. Obviously, those numbers pale in comparison to her 132 million Instagram followers. Her strong visual impact, plus her popularity in Latin America, provide her much better looking figures on YouTube. The Spotify-YouTube ratio for her first two albums is an intriguing 1 to 10.

In terms of equivalent album sales (EAS), Kiss & Tell totals 146,000 units while A Year Without Rain is on 105,000 units, both modest totals for recent efforts.

When the Sun Goes Down does better with 326,000 EAS. It is mostly thanks to Love You Like A Love Song which is clearly Gomez’s signature song from the first part of her career.

13 thoughts on “CSPC: Selena Gomez Popularity Analysis”

  1. Her sales are very disappointing, even if she has never been considered at the top of the game. Femme Fatale or Art Pop (which were flops) have sold more in sps than any Selena album. Undoubtedly, she is more of a celebrity than a super music star.

  2. com essas análises confiáveis podemos concluir algumas coisas.

    -Selena apesar de ser OK nas vendas não pode ser considerada essa hitmaker que muitos forçam ela ser.
    -‎Sua equipe de marketing é excelente pois mesmo ainda sendo pequena seu nome é mais forte para grandes marcas do que outras que pareiam com seus número (Demi/Ariana)
    -‎Ela é excelente em streams o que ajuda seus números crescerem.
    -‎Os charts do twitter são as piores e menos confiáveis fontes de vendas, pois sempre inflam (e muito) os números para beneficiarem seus artistas favoritos.

    Parabéns por mais uma incrível análise.

  3. Her Asian sales outside of Japan seem to be a bit of stretch. Every album matches the non-Japanese sales of Ariana’s Yours Truly in Asia (50,000), yet that album has sold 20x as much in Japan compared to every Selena album, and Ariana is a much bigger star in Asia as a whole. Dangerous Woman barely outdoes Revival (released one year before; 52,500 outside of Japan versus 70,000), yet it has sold almost 12x as much in Japan.

    1. Yeah, I don’t understand this either. MJD, how’d you arrive at such high figures for Selena in Asia? She sells quite poorly (to say the least) in countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan. She’s almost unknown in those countries. I don’t see how smaller markets like Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, etc could make up for that.

    2. Hi Chrysalynne & Stephen!

      If we caricature Asian music industry a bit, there is two kind of markets. First, there is the “true” Asian markets as we use to think about, South Korea, Japan, China, etc. Selena Gomez is weak there. Then there is markets with Latin influences rather than American ones like the Philippines, Indonesia and India. The first two markets have a massive tradition of going crazy about all Disney stars. It is also possible for Latin-favored acts to do well in countries like Thailand and Singapore.

      Historically, the first category of markets used to be much bigger. They collapsed more than the later ones during the lat 15 years though. In fact, India and Indonesia now rank at 1 and 2 for physical album sales in Asia (outside Japan obviously).

      The majority of non-Japanese album sales of both Ariana & Selena is thus mostly concentrated in markets like Indonesia and Philippines on which both are big. The success of Ariana in a country like South Korea is represented on her singles’ sales instead with 7,4 million downloads against some 100,000 units for Selena.

      If we check the monthly statistics on YouTube of both, they are fairly close globally – Ariana is on 170,913,240 views, Selena on 161,916,910. The domination of Ariana is obvious in Japan / SK markets:
      Ariana
      Japan – 5,416,303
      SK – 4,563,216

      Selena
      Japan – 1,582,388
      SK – 1,147,449

      That’s almost a 4 to 1 lead. The same isn’t true at all elsewhere though:

      Ariana
      Taiwan – 1,519,973
      Singapore – 605,317
      Indonesia – 4,837,174
      Philippines – 4,580,753
      Thailand – 4,094,914
      India – 2,053,688
      Vietnam – 1,654,990
      Malaysia – 1,433,738
      Cambodia – 520,437
      Bangladesh – 280,924

      Selena
      Taiwan – 1,816,545
      Singapore – 747,161
      Indonesia – 5,221,105
      Philippines – 2,969,254
      Thailand – 2,424,845
      India – 5,893,429
      Vietnam – 2,600,518
      Malaysia – 2,402,756
      Cambodia – 824,876
      Bangladesh – 715,315

      Total is 21,5 million vs 25,6 million with Selena ahead. This creates a 5 to 1 gap between their respective popularity Japan/SK and remaining countries.

      BTW, Selena’s albums likely sold a bit more than suggested in Japan. Her sales are small, so rounded figures can lead to a big gap in terms of percentage (50% from 8k to 12k which are both rounded on 10k for example). As she sold very few copies, it means her albums were hardly stocked / available at retailers, so they are likely much bigger sellers (again in proportions rather than absolute terms) in digital than many other artists. I kept that in mind while fixing the Asian total, rounding it to the upper 10k to compensate for the conservative Japanese figure.

      1. Thank you so much for explaining! This makes sense. It’s always weird to see someone do so poorly in Japan but relatively well in other Asian countries. I guess that’s a lot more common with Disney/Teen stars!

  4. Her average album sales is 1.14M. I thought Revival sold more tbh.
    She’s becoming less local with every album.
    Kiss&tell: US 940k (66%)
    AYWR: 830k (65%)
    WTSGD: 720k (61%)
    Stars dance: 420k (52%)
    Revival: 425k (54%)**

    If she would’ve continue increasing her ww sales Revival should’ve sold 850k. But she was decreasing in the US until revival, interesting!

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