CSPC: Drake Popularity Analysis

Saturday Night Fever

CSPC OVERALL SALES – Albums Ranking

1 1977 Bee GeesSaturday Night Fever – 67,110,000
2 1977 Fleetwood MacRumours – 60,508,000
3 1971 Led ZeppelinLed Zeppelin IV – 56,573,000
4 1973 Pink FloydThe Dark Side of the Moon – 55,796,000
5 1992 Whitney HoustonThe Bodyguard – 53,744,000
6 1991 NirvanaNevermind – 52,930,000
7 1978 SoundtrackGrease – 51,899,000
8 1979 Pink FloydThe Wall – 50,309,000
9 1986 Bon JoviSlippery When Wet – 49,377,000
10 1984 Bruce SpringsteenBorn in the U.S.A. – 47,373,000
11 1987 U2The Joshua Tree – 47,050,000
12 1997 Céline DionLet’s Talk About Love – 45,849,000
13 1987 Guns N’ RosesAppetite For Destruction – 45,435,000
14 1997 Shania TwainCome On Over – 44,888,000
15 1969 BeatlesAbbey Road – 42,928,000
16 1996 Céline DionFalling Into You – 41,605,000
17 1991 MetallicaMetallica – 40,460,000
18 1984 MadonnaLike A Virgin – 39,664,000
19 1975 Bruce SpringsteenBorn To Run – 39,363,000
20 2011 Adele21 – 39,321,000
21 1986 MadonnaTrue Blue – 36,552,000
22 1976 ABBAArrival – 34,855,000
23 1993 Mariah CareyMusic Box – 33,985,000
24 1975 QueenA Night At The Opera – 33,680,000
25 1969 Led ZeppelinLed Zeppelin II – 33,449,000
26 1965 BeatlesHelp! – 33,058,000
27 1970 BeatlesLet It Be – 32,754,000
28 1975 Pink FloydWish You Were Here – 32,462,000
29 1967 BeatlesSgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band – 31,335,000
30 1995 Mariah CareyDaydream – 31,152,000
31 2000 Linkin ParkHybrid Theory – 30,949,000
32 1999 Britney Spears…Baby One More Time – 30,842,000
33 1963 BeatlesPlease Please Me – 29,930,000
34 1996 Spice GirlsSpice – 29,727,000
35 2000 EminemThe Marshall Mathers LP – 29,577,000
36 1999 Backstreet BoysMillennium – 29,224,000
37 2008 Lady GagaThe Fame / The Fame Monster – 28,697,000
38 1967 BeatlesMagical Mystery Tour – 28,664,000
39 1985 Whitney HoustonWhitney Houston – 28,646,000
40 1968 BeatlesThe Beatles (White Album) – 27,895,000
41 1997 Backstreet BoysBackstreet’s Back – 27,882,000
42 2002 EminemThe Eminem Show – 27,265,000
43 1984 George Michael & Wham!Make It Big – 27,055,000
44 1987 George Michael & Wham!Faith – 26,767,000
45 1987 Whitney HoustonWhitney – 26,560,000
46 2002 Norah JonesCome Away With Me – 26,349,000
47 1964 BeatlesA Hard Day’s Night – 25,803,000
48 1994 Green DayDookie – 25,419,000
49 1989 MadonnaLike A Prayer – 25,403,000
50 1975 AerosmithToys In The Attic – 25,055,000
51 1977 Billy JoelThe Stranger – 24,886,000
52 1991 Guns N’ RosesUse Your Illusion I – 24,655,000
53 1983 U2War – 24,622,000
54 1975 ABBAABBA – 24,566,000
55 1991 U2Achtung Baby – 24,407,000
56 1991 Guns N’ RosesUse Your Illusion II – 23,705,000
57 1969 Led ZeppelinLed Zeppelin I – 23,628,000
58 1966 BeatlesRevolver – 23,571,000
59 1965 BeatlesRubber Soul – 22,967,000
60 2000 Britney SpearsOops!… I Did It Again – 22,845,000
61 1993 Céline DionThe Colour Of My Love – 22,438,000
62 1973 Led ZeppelinHouses Of The Holy – 22,350,000
63 1983 Billy JoelAn Innocent Man – 22,320,000
64 2015 Adele25 – 21,886,000
65 1971 Rolling StonesSticky Fingers – 21,537,000
66 1998 MadonnaRay Of Light – 21,197,000
67 1980 ABBASuper Trouper – 21,146,000
68 1969 Rolling StonesLet It Bleed – 20,991,000
69 1987 Fleetwood MacTango In The Night – 20,797,000
70 1979 ABBAVoulez-Vous – 20,559,000
71 2000 U2All That You Can’t Leave Behind – 20,536,000
72 2004 Green DayAmerican Idiot – 20,481,000
73 1970 Led ZeppelinLed Zeppelin III – 20,018,000
74 1990 Mariah CareyMariah Carey – 19,736,000
75 1988 Bon JoviNew Jersey – 19,399,000
76 1966 Rolling StonesAftermath – 19,369,000
77 1993 Janet JacksonJanet. – 19,251,000
78 1993 NirvanaIn Utero – 18,955,000
79 2006 Amy WinehouseBack To Black – 18,928,000
80 1983 MadonnaMadonna – 18,537,000
81 1977 ABBAThe Album – 18,313,000
82 1995 Shania TwainThe Woman in Me – 18,252,000
83 1979 Bee GeesSpirits Having Flown – 18,241,000
84 1978 Rolling StonesSome Girls – 18,195,000
85 1973 Billy JoelPiano Man – 18,159,000
86 2002 ColdplayA Rush Of Blood To The Head – 18,029,000
87 2003 Linkin ParkMeteora – 18,005,000
88 1999 Destiny’s ChildThe Writing’s on the Wall – 17,791,000
89 1988 Metallica…And Justice For All – 17,692,000
90 2009 Black Eyed PeasThe E.N.D. – 17,605,000
91 1980 Bruce SpringsteenThe River – 17,545,000
92 1989 Janet JacksonRhythm Nation 1814 – 17,523,000
93 2005 NickelbackAll the Right Reasons – 17,495,000
94 1975 Led ZeppelinPhysical Graffiti – 17,468,000
95 1994 Mariah CareyMerry Christmas – 17,296,000
96 1975 Fleetwood MacFleetwood Mac – 16,966,000
97 1996 Backstreet BoysBackstreet Boys – 16,907,000
98 1964 BeatlesBeatles for Sale – 16,896,000
99 1988 U2Rattle And Hum – 16,737,000
99 2002 Maroon 5Songs About Jane – 16,737,000

202 1979 Fleetwood MacTusk – 9,607,000
203 1989 NirvanaBleach – 9,449,000
204 2013 Katy PerryPrism – 9,445,000
205 1966 Bob DylanBlonde on Blonde – 9,434,000
206 2003 Michael BubléMichael Bublé – 9,286,000
207 2016 DrakeViews – 9,239,000
208 1999 Mariah CareyRainbow – 9,140,000
209 1992 MadonnaErotica – 9,079,000
210 1965 Bob DylanBringing It All Back Home – 9,077,000
211 2013 One DirectionMidnight Memories – 8,845,000
212 1975 Bob DylanBlood on the Tracks – 8,826,000

5 thoughts on “CSPC: Drake Popularity Analysis”

  1. Hi MJD!

    Nice analysis as always, but I have 1 main question concerning how you calculate streaming equivalent sales, particularly audio streams.

    Your method of calculating audio streaming equivalent sales of records is by multiplying the cumalative streams on Spotify with the ratio between the total audio market and Spotify in the current year, and finally dividing it by 1500.However, one problem I see is this: the growing share of Spotify among streaming platforms, hence a much smaller ratio for each year.

    For older acts (eg. Beatles), their streams increase at a relatively slow pace. If we were to multiply their cumalative streams with an updated ratio, their streaming equivalent sales will undoubtedly be lower every year as the ratio keeps getting smaller and smaller.

    However, this doesn’t concerns those acts as much as acts of today that achieve huge streaming (eg. Drake) While streaming only takes up a small percentage of the total CSPC total for the former, the latter is the total opposite, with some acts total CSPC sales having more than half coming from streaming. What’s more, with a dying market of album sales and downloads, these newer acts heavily rely on streaming to generate catalog “sales”. If the records of these acts don’t increase in streams at a certain pace on Spotify, then using a decreasing ratio every year will cause their totals to will remain more or less the same, perhaps even lower. Hence the concept of catalog sales is meaningless to them.

    What I suggest doing is to multiply the streams of a record it achieved on Spotify during a year with the ratio of that particular year, and using the updated ratio for another year on the Spotify streams it achieved for that year. For example, let’s say that an album achieved 500 million streams and 200 million streams for 2019 and 2020 respectively, while the share of Spotify among all audio streaming platforms is 40% and 50% respectively. What I suggest is to calculate like this: ((500m*100/40)+(200m*100/50))/1500= (1,25B+400m)/1500=1,1m audio streaming equivalents for 2019 and 2020

    Of course, this is only a suggestion. Tell me your thoughts on this. If you were to use this formula I proposed, the only real problem is to keep a large database that shows how many streams an album generated each year and the share of Spotify among all audio streaming platforms each year as well.

    1. Hi Raffi!

      The main error on the old formula for streams was the paid users vs total users confusion. The formula was using the percentage of paid users of streaming services that were using Spotify as there was no data on IFPI report for free users. The problem is that paid-only platforms appeared, creating a very different share of “paid users” and “free users” using Spotify. The formula used the share of paid users, while counts of streams were built by all users combined.

      Now that this is fixed and that each streaming platform took its place, I’m not expecting notable changes. For nearly 1 year now, Spotify goes up and down between 62% and 64% of the overall market, this is quite stable at the moment. The ratio is someway wrong for years 2012/2014, but the impact is minimal there. As noted on updates, the artists roughly doubled their streams during the last 10-11 months, e.g. last 2 years represent a good 80% of the total streams to date of an artist. If the formula deflates an artist results for pre-2015 years by 20% for example, that would be 20% out of 20%, an error around 4%, a percentage that gets smaller every week of new streams which lower even more the importance of ‘old’ streams.

      Obviously, if a new change of policy, for example Spotify going premium only, changes the share of all services, the formula will be adjusted. I do not exclude the possibility of ‘dating’ streams as you mention to apply the most relevant formula for each stream. I stay optimistic there though about shares staying flat during the next months/years!

  2. Hi, I just noticed for Drake all his features sales/streams are given to him 100%. Why is this?

    It doesn’t seem to make sense to give a feature 100% of a song’s sales/streams, even if they were on the song for 5 seconds. Janelle Monae shouldn’t receive 100% of We Are Young’s sales/streams.

    You also made the formula for video streams 11,754 = 1 album versus 1,500 = 1 album for audio streams, the reasoning being that video streams pay much less than audio.

    An artist gets paid much less of a fraction from features than as lead artist, so shouldn’t they receive a fraction of the sales/streams from features?

    1. Hi Anon!

      The case of features is definitely a tricky one. To be honest, I don’t like the 100% attribution that much, but I can’t see a better solution. I don’t like using a fraction, say 50%, for two reasons: 1/ it is artificial, 2/ not all features are as relevant. Many blame Rihanna due to her numerous featurings, but on most of them she has a role at least as big as the lead singer. In the other side, someone like T-Pain or Nate Dogg were never the #1 singer of a song, Quavo seems to be following the same road.

      For this reason, I can’t fix a frozen percentage. I also can’t dictate a distinct share for each feature as 1/ it wouldn’t be valid, 2/ that would imply to listen / gauge each and every song for each artist. That’s not possible.

      It must be said that I took that decision when starting the first CSPC article with Rihanna and having in mind that I would study mostly major artists that are also pretty relevant to the songs on which they contribute. If tomorrow I work on Lil Jon, I’ll most likely build an appendix to the concept to avoid getting a flawed total due to unweighted featurings!

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