CSPC: Drake Popularity Analysis

My Heart Will Go On

CSPC OVERALL SALES – Tracks Ranking

1 1997 Céline DionMy Heart Will Go On [Let’s Talk About Love] – 36,370,000
2 1992 Whitney HoustonI Will Always Love You [The Bodyguard] – 33,620,000
3 1977 Bee GeesStayin’ Alive [Saturday Night Fever] – 31,460,000
4 1975 QueenBohemian Rhapsody [A Night At The Opera] – 26,270,000
5 1971 Led ZeppelinStairway To Heaven [Led Zeppelin IV] – 26,120,000
6 1976 ABBADancing Queen [Arrival] – 24,300,000
7 1987 U2With Or Without You [The Joshua Tree] – 23,140,000
8 1986 Bon JoviLivin’ on a Prayer [Slippery When Wet] – 23,110,000
9 1975 Pink FloydWish You Were Here [Wish You Were Here] – 22,260,000
10 1996 Spice GirlsWannabe [Spice] – 20,550,000
11 1987 Whitney HoustonI Wanna Dance with Somebody (Who Loves Me) [Whitney] – 19,630,000
12 1977 Fleetwood MacGo Your Own Way [Rumours] – 19,320,000
13 1989 MadonnaLike A Prayer [Like A Prayer] – 18,550,000
14 1999 Backstreet BoysI Want It That Way [Millennium] – 18,160,000
15 1999 Britney Spears…Baby One More Time […Baby One More Time] – 17,920,000
16 1978 SoundtrackYou’re the One That I Want [Grease] – 17,590,000
17 1991 NirvanaSmells Like Teen Spirit [Nevermind] – 17,330,000
18 1987 Guns N RosesSweet Child O’Mine [Appetite For Destruction] – 17,250,000
19 1975 AerosmithWalk This Way [Toys In The Attic] – 16,970,000
20 1983 U2Sunday Bloody Sunday [War] – 16,720,000
21 1979 Pink FloydAnother Brick in the Wall (Part II) [The Wall] – 16,700,000
22 1986 Bon JoviYou Give Love a Bad Name [Slippery When Wet] – 16,360,000
23 1996 Céline DionBecause You Loved Me [Falling Into You] – 16,180,000
24 2015 AdeleHello [25] – 15,730,000
25 1963 BeatlesI Want to Hold Your Hand [Orphan] – 15,670,000
26 1977 Bee GeesHow Deep Is Your Love [Saturday Night Fever] – 15,500,000
27 1966 Rolling StonesPaint It Black [Aftermath] – 15,370,000
28 1970 BeatlesLet It Be [Let It Be] – 15,320,000
29 1984 MadonnaLike A Virgin [Like A Virgin] – 15,210,000
30 1973 Billy JoelPiano Man [Piano Man] – 14,860,000
31 1975 ABBAMamma Mia [ABBA] – 14,810,000
32 1984 Bruce SpringsteenBorn in the U.S.A. [Born in the U.S.A.] – 14,800,000
33 1965 Rolling Stones(I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction [Out Of Our Heads] – 14,630,000
34 1997 Backstreet BoysEverybody (Backstreet’s Back) [Backstreet’s Back] – 14,610,000
34 1991 U2One [Achtung Baby] – 14,610,000
36 1969 Led ZeppelinWhole Lotta Love [Led Zeppelin II] – 14,560,000
37 2000 U2Beautiful Day [All That You Can’t Leave Behind] – 14,550,000
38 1977 Fleetwood MacDreams [Rumours] – 14,430,000
39 2002 EminemLose Yourself [8 Mile] – 14,170,000
40 1986 MadonnaLa Isla Bonita [True Blue] – 14,160,000
41 1973 Pink FloydMoney [The Dark Side of the Moon] – 14,130,000
42 1993 Mariah CareyHero [Music Box] – 14,070,000
43 1965 Bob DylanLike a Rolling Stone [Highway 61 Revisited] – 13,910,000
44 1991 NirvanaCome As You Are [Nevermind] – 13,880,000
45 1983 Billy JoelUptown Girl [An Innocent Man] – 13,840,000
46 1994 Mariah CareyAll I Want for Christmas Is You [Merry Christmas] – 13,710,000
47 1981 Rolling StonesStart Me Up [Tattoo You] – 13,570,000
48 1984 Bruce SpringsteenDancing in the Dark [Born in the U.S.A.] – 13,530,000
49 1987 U2I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For [The Joshua Tree] – 13,250,000
50 1997 Shania TwainMan! I Feel Like a Woman! [Come On Over] – 13,230,000
51 1984 George Michael & Wham!Careless Whisper [Make It Big] – 13,110,000
52 1993 Céline DionThe Power of Love [The Colour Of My Love] – 13,010,000
53 1965 BeatlesYesterday [Help!] – 12,860,000
54 1969 BeatlesCome Together [Abbey Road] – 12,810,000
55 1994 Green DayBasket Case [Dookie] – 12,790,000
56 1991 MetallicaEnter Sandman [Metallica] – 12,690,000
57 1984 MadonnaMaterial Girl [Like A Virgin] – 12,550,000
58 1968 Rolling StonesSympathy For The Devil [Beggars Banquet] – 12,260,000
59 2000 Britney SpearsOops!… I Did It Again [Oops!… I Did It Again] – 12,250,000
60 1996 Céline DionIt’s All Coming Back to Me Now [Falling Into You] – 12,210,000
61 1995 Mariah CareyAlways Be My Baby [Daydream] – 12,120,000
62 2000 Linkin ParkIn the End [Hybrid Theory] – 12,040,000
63 1968 BeatlesHey Jude [Orphan] – 12,010,000
64 1987 George Michael & Wham!Faith [Faith] – 11,890,000
64 1990 MadonnaVogue [I’m Breathless] – 11,790,000
66 1978 Rolling StonesBeast Of Burden [Some Girls] – 11,780,000
67 1991 Guns N RosesNovember Rain [Use Your Illusion I] – 11,660,000
68 1991 MetallicaNothing Else Matters [Metallica] – 11,580,000
69 1992 Whitney HoustonI Have Nothing [The Bodyguard] – 11,570,000
70 1993 Mariah CareyWithout You [Music Box] – 11,390,000
71 1969 BeatlesHere Comes the Sun [Abbey Road] – 11,370,000
72 1985 Whitney HoustonHow Will I Know [Whitney Houston] – 11,350,000
73 1987 Guns N RosesParadise City [Appetite For Destruction] – 11,220,000
74 1975 Bruce SpringsteenBorn to Run [Born to Run] – 11,100,000
75 2001 NickelbackHow You Remind Me [Silver Side Up] – 11,080,000
76 1963 BeatlesLove Me Do [Please Please Me] – 11,020,000
77 1991 Guns N RosesKnockin’ on Heaven’s Door [Use Your Illusion II] – 10,960,000
78 1987 Guns N RosesWelcome To The Jungle [Appetite For Destruction] – 10,910,000
79 1987 Fleetwood MacEverywhere [Tango In The Night] – 10,800,000
80 2000 Bon JoviIt’s My Life [Crush] – 10,770,000
81 1979 Pink FloydComfortably Numb [The Wall] – 10,740,000
82 1973 Rolling StonesAngie [Goats Head Soup] – 10,680,000
83 1984 George Michael & Wham!Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go [Make It Big] – 10,670,000
84 2011 AdeleRolling in the Deep [21] – 10,350,000
85 1993 Janet JacksonThat’s the Way Love Goes [Janet] – 10,320,000
86 1997 Shania TwainYou’re Still the One [Come On Over] – 10,260,000
87 1995 Mariah CareyFantasy [Daydream] – 10,210,000
88 1971 Led ZeppelinBlack Dog [Led Zeppelin IV] – 10,000,000
89 1964 BeatlesA Hard Day’s Night [A Hard Day’s Night] – 9,800,000
90 1977 Bee GeesNight Fever [Saturday Night Fever] – 9,780,000
91 1963 BeatlesTwist and Shout [Please Please Me] – 9,760,000
92 1977 ABBATake a Chance on Me [The Album] – 9,720,000
93 1997 Shania TwainThat Don’t Impress Me Much [Come On Over] – 9,650,000
94 2001 Alicia KeysFallin’ [Songs in A Minor] – 9,620,000
95 2000 EminemThe Real Slim Shady [The Marshall Mathers LP] – 9,530,000
96 1988 MetallicaOne […And Justice For All] – 9,440,000
96 1971 Rolling StonesBrown Sugar [Sticky Fingers] – 9,440,000
98 1969 Led ZeppelinGood Times Bad Times [Led Zeppelin I] – 9,360,000
99 1969 Rolling StonesGimme Shelter [Let It Bleed] – 9,350,000
100 1970 Led ZeppelinImmigrant Song [Led Zeppelin III] – 9,340,000

490 2014 Bruno MarsUptown Funk [Orphan] – 2,770,000
490 2011 AdeleTurning Tables [21] – 2,770,000
492 1973 Pink FloydOn the Run [The Dark Side of the Moon] – 2,760,000
492 2010 Katy PerryFirework [Teenage Dream] – 2,760,000
492 2014 Maroon 5Sugar [V] – 2,760,000
495 2016 DrakeOne Dance [Views] – 2,750,000
496 1996 MadonnaDon’t Cry For Me Argentina [Evita] – 2,740,000
496 2002 EminemCleanin’ Out My Closet [The Eminem Show] – 2,740,000
496 2010 Justin BieberBaby [My World / My World 2.0] – 2,740,000
499 1970 BeatlesAcross the Universe [Let It Be] – 2,730,000
499 2010 Black Eyed PeasThe Time (Dirty Bit) [The Beginning] – 2,730,000

5 thoughts on “CSPC: Drake Popularity Analysis”

  1. Hi MJD!

    Nice analysis as always, but I have 1 main question concerning how you calculate streaming equivalent sales, particularly audio streams.

    Your method of calculating audio streaming equivalent sales of records is by multiplying the cumalative streams on Spotify with the ratio between the total audio market and Spotify in the current year, and finally dividing it by 1500.However, one problem I see is this: the growing share of Spotify among streaming platforms, hence a much smaller ratio for each year.

    For older acts (eg. Beatles), their streams increase at a relatively slow pace. If we were to multiply their cumalative streams with an updated ratio, their streaming equivalent sales will undoubtedly be lower every year as the ratio keeps getting smaller and smaller.

    However, this doesn’t concerns those acts as much as acts of today that achieve huge streaming (eg. Drake) While streaming only takes up a small percentage of the total CSPC total for the former, the latter is the total opposite, with some acts total CSPC sales having more than half coming from streaming. What’s more, with a dying market of album sales and downloads, these newer acts heavily rely on streaming to generate catalog “sales”. If the records of these acts don’t increase in streams at a certain pace on Spotify, then using a decreasing ratio every year will cause their totals to will remain more or less the same, perhaps even lower. Hence the concept of catalog sales is meaningless to them.

    What I suggest doing is to multiply the streams of a record it achieved on Spotify during a year with the ratio of that particular year, and using the updated ratio for another year on the Spotify streams it achieved for that year. For example, let’s say that an album achieved 500 million streams and 200 million streams for 2019 and 2020 respectively, while the share of Spotify among all audio streaming platforms is 40% and 50% respectively. What I suggest is to calculate like this: ((500m*100/40)+(200m*100/50))/1500= (1,25B+400m)/1500=1,1m audio streaming equivalents for 2019 and 2020

    Of course, this is only a suggestion. Tell me your thoughts on this. If you were to use this formula I proposed, the only real problem is to keep a large database that shows how many streams an album generated each year and the share of Spotify among all audio streaming platforms each year as well.

    1. Hi Raffi!

      The main error on the old formula for streams was the paid users vs total users confusion. The formula was using the percentage of paid users of streaming services that were using Spotify as there was no data on IFPI report for free users. The problem is that paid-only platforms appeared, creating a very different share of “paid users” and “free users” using Spotify. The formula used the share of paid users, while counts of streams were built by all users combined.

      Now that this is fixed and that each streaming platform took its place, I’m not expecting notable changes. For nearly 1 year now, Spotify goes up and down between 62% and 64% of the overall market, this is quite stable at the moment. The ratio is someway wrong for years 2012/2014, but the impact is minimal there. As noted on updates, the artists roughly doubled their streams during the last 10-11 months, e.g. last 2 years represent a good 80% of the total streams to date of an artist. If the formula deflates an artist results for pre-2015 years by 20% for example, that would be 20% out of 20%, an error around 4%, a percentage that gets smaller every week of new streams which lower even more the importance of ‘old’ streams.

      Obviously, if a new change of policy, for example Spotify going premium only, changes the share of all services, the formula will be adjusted. I do not exclude the possibility of ‘dating’ streams as you mention to apply the most relevant formula for each stream. I stay optimistic there though about shares staying flat during the next months/years!

  2. Hi, I just noticed for Drake all his features sales/streams are given to him 100%. Why is this?

    It doesn’t seem to make sense to give a feature 100% of a song’s sales/streams, even if they were on the song for 5 seconds. Janelle Monae shouldn’t receive 100% of We Are Young’s sales/streams.

    You also made the formula for video streams 11,754 = 1 album versus 1,500 = 1 album for audio streams, the reasoning being that video streams pay much less than audio.

    An artist gets paid much less of a fraction from features than as lead artist, so shouldn’t they receive a fraction of the sales/streams from features?

    1. Hi Anon!

      The case of features is definitely a tricky one. To be honest, I don’t like the 100% attribution that much, but I can’t see a better solution. I don’t like using a fraction, say 50%, for two reasons: 1/ it is artificial, 2/ not all features are as relevant. Many blame Rihanna due to her numerous featurings, but on most of them she has a role at least as big as the lead singer. In the other side, someone like T-Pain or Nate Dogg were never the #1 singer of a song, Quavo seems to be following the same road.

      For this reason, I can’t fix a frozen percentage. I also can’t dictate a distinct share for each feature as 1/ it wouldn’t be valid, 2/ that would imply to listen / gauge each and every song for each artist. That’s not possible.

      It must be said that I took that decision when starting the first CSPC article with Rihanna and having in mind that I would study mostly major artists that are also pretty relevant to the songs on which they contribute. If tomorrow I work on Lil Jon, I’ll most likely build an appendix to the concept to avoid getting a flawed total due to unweighted featurings!

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