# CSPC: Justin Bieber Popularity Analysis

###### My World / My World 2.0 (2009)
• America
• US – 4,900,000
• Canada – 520,000
• Argentina – N/A
• Brazil – 260,000
• Mexico – 240,000
• Asia
• Japan – 160,000
• Oceania
• Australia – 250,000
• New Zealand – 40,000
• Europe – 1,790,000
• UK – 800,000
• France – 195,000
• Germany – 240,000
• Italy – 65,000
• Spain – 85,000
• Sweden – 25,000
• Netherland – 40,000
• Switzerland – 45,000
• Austria – 35,000
• Finland – 5,000
• World – 8,800,000

## 58 thoughts on “CSPC: Justin Bieber Popularity Analysis”

1. He’s an all around force. Strong album sales, strong digital sales, and extraordinary streaming numbers. He’s definitely up there (with Bruno) as the biggest male artist this decade.

2. bsdoa says:

Hey baby, how you calculate the comprehensive streams? Thanks

3. megatrix says:

3,88 billion streams from Purpose= 6,7 million albums? Why? I thought that 1500 streams, one album. Therefore 3,88 billion streams, 2,6 million albums.I dont understand your method.

1. Hi Megatrix!

The figure of 3,88 billion refers to Spotify streams only, it gets extrapolated in order to make it a comprehensive figure over all streaming platform, then only afterwards the total is divided by 1500 🙂

This extrapolation is currently being reviewed with new IFPI figures!

1. megatrix says:

Thanks for answering me. You’re very kind. But I still dont understand your method. If Porpuse has sold 6.7 million albums and an album equals 1500 streams, porpuse has achieved 10,050,000,000 streams? I find this implausible. Did you also add his streams from youtube?

1. megatrix says:

Sorry. I said that Purpose has sold 6.7 million albums, but I wanted to say that 6.7 million of their sales are from streaming according to your data.

2. It was calculated on the back of IFPI reported as mentioned in that section introduction:
Below table lists Spotify streaming of all songs from the five albums we are studying. The Comprehensive Streaming is reached by multiplying Spotify figures by 68/26. In fact, as shown in IFPI 2015 Report, there were 68 million paying subscribers to all streaming platforms by the end of 2015. While the exact count of Spotify paying subscribers by the end of 2015 is unknown, that figure reached 20 million in June 2015 and 30 million in March 2016, thus an estimated 26 million is used as of the end of 2015.

As Spotify share happens to be bigger now, the total will be downgraded when applying the new methods that will be published for the first time from Miley Cyrus article next week!

1. megatrix says:

I dont understand the IFPI logic. Will you upgrade to all the artists studied?

2. Jake says:

Hey MJDangerous.
I love all your charts, but I think your comprehensive streaming fails to take into account free streams.

For example the streaming stats take into account all the free streamers too.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/9to5mac.com/2016/06/20/spotify-apple-music-users/amp/

There are 100 million subscribers on Spotify but only 30m are paid. Whereas for the other 40m or so on other services they’re just paid subscribers. Like Apple Music, tidal, etc just have paid subscribers. So Spotify definitely represents a larger share of the market.

Please respond. I’m a huge fan haha.

3. Hi Jake!

Yes, I’m perfecly aware the free-paid users ratio is different accross all streaming platforms. Spotify and Deezer have many free users while others not so much or not at all. This being said, the new methodology (not the one quoted here for Justin Bieber) uses the average, in the end there is no real impact. As per leaked documents of paid royalties, the ratio between all platforms is 1 to 1,3, in spite of the free streamers they pay roughly the same average. This is due to several reasons, including the price which is on average lower at other platforms since their share of new users is larger and those new users have a huge majority of people who subscribed during a promotional offer.

About your figures, they are outdated, Spotify reached 50 million paid subscribers by early March, like 54 million now considering the increase pace lately. The total number of users of such platforms is 212 million. Everything is detailed in this update.

2. Reimes says:

Oi amigo, os próximos você poderia usar o sps nos singles o que você acha?

1. Hi Reimes,

Why using SPS? Mixing downloads and streams would barely result in a waste of information. Plus, each country has a different formula for SPS, it wouldn’t make sense to combine them all as likes to likes. It is much better to have both downloads and streams and then apply one unique and consistent conversion method for all artists in all countries.

4. Jake says:

Just to clarify I meant as in for the 3.88B streams was achieved by a combination of the 30m paid subscribers and 70m free subscribers. So in total across all subscription services (not including YT and video streams) there’s around 140m subscribers of which about 100m are on Spotify

5. Jake says:

Thank you
Just to clarify. So the new ratio is 132:212?
Thank you

1. Hi Jake,

For audio streams, yes! Then converted into album sales with 1500/1 ratio. YouTube views are added on their side with a convertion ratio of 11750/1.

1. Jake says:

What about features?
I understand that the all time hot 100 charts use a 70/30 ratio for lead artists to features? Would you ever consider implementing something like that?

6. carlos says:

Hi, according to billboard my world 2.0 sold 3.330M and my world EP sold 2.100M, around 5.500M, i think now could be more or the same.
he received a plaque in argentina for selling 40k copies (2011) for my worlds (that was at the susana gimenez program) tbh i think he sold more than 100k year to date

so if you fix it, the total album sales for my worlds could rise to 9.5m-10m?

**btw others release mean my world acoustic + my world the collection?

1. Hi Carlos,

You should be more explicit as to your sales figures refer to the US or the World, up to which date etc. You seem to be mixing a US Soundscan figure for My World 2.0 with a guess estimate for the EP Worldwide. In fact, the page of My World already includes the EP version.

Figure for Argentina is displayed as Not Available because there is not enough precise information to commit on an exact figure, it doesn’t mean 0 has been accounted for. I used 120k on my calculations sheet for it.

Other releases are displayed on page 12, it includes all music videos, compilations, remixes and live sets.

7. carlos says:

bieber was the male taylor swift tbh, he was so local until purpose

purpose i think sales are around 6-6.5m
* japan: physical sales 120k, with digital sales 180k -200k or more, he’s still charting in top 5 japan itunes.
* mexico: sales last update (before he was touring in mexico wich give him rebound in sales) were 390k, he now round 450-500k
*UK: last update in sales was at 1.12M, now could be around 1.2M
* US: last time was 1.820m (nielsen music year end), but he received huge rebound for superbowl commercial, maybe 1.9M now.
*Canada: last certification update was april, 2016 (320k) but after that he stayed 10 weeks in the top 5 and 25 weeks in top 10, i think he sold around 400k-450k or more,
taking into account was ahead adele.

1. Hi again Carlos,

You are mixing streaming into various of your figures, streaming which is already accounted for distinctively. In fact, figures in the article are even too high as the album shipped 3,1 million copies last year and less than 1,4 million this year as per the IFPI, meaning it is at most on 4,5 million to date.

1. carlos says:

albums shipped doesn’t mean how many you sold lol.
i remember that HDD did an article in 2015 about 1d vs jb and showed that mostly jb US sales were digitally. that prove that even 4.5m or 5.2m is nothing considering he sold really huge digitally.

japan, mexico and the us are 100% PURE sales.
uk, in a article when he announce second uk leg, appears purpose sold 600k copies (physical), taking in considering he’s really huge digital, around sold to date 950k-1M pure. 1.2M with streams.

canada isn’t huge in streaming, if it sold 400k still is huge than your ”prediction”

1. Hi Carlos,

Once again, the article is from August 2016, I hope you realize it isn’t possible to update on a daily basis all articles from the website.

As for copies sold digitally, they are obviously already taken into account by the IFPI. iTunes is irrelevant in Japan. Mexican certifications do include streaming, so does Canadian one. Purpose sold 240k in 2015 and 88k in 2016 as per Soundscan in Canada, which means 325,000 shipped by 08/2016 made perfect sense.

The album also ‘sold’ way more than 200k in streams in the UK. By March 2016 it was on 195,484 streaming sales out of 891,075 in total. From April, its streaming sales were already representing more than 50% of its weekly total thus streams represent from 350,000 to 375,000 units of the 1,15 million sales to date.

1. carlos says:

ifpi isn’t really accurate but ok, according to them lemonade in 2016 sold more than 25.
digital sales are growing fast in japan, even are in the same level (2017 climate) as the US.
No, amprofon started to include streaming recently (april 2017)
ok then your prediction about canada is accurate. now 350k
official chart in 2016 (november) showed that purpose total streaming was 313k, the album total sales was at 1,123,000.
830k
-850k pure sales to date. then your prediction was almost exact haha my bad.

2. IFPI is 100% accurate. They deal with shipment (as mentioned, this does include digital sales) which is why Lemonade topped 25 as 25 sold in 2016 many copies which had been shipped in 2015.

Mexico failed to communicate well on their inclusion of streaming. It appears clear they have been incorporating it for long, here is Purpose history:
12/2016 – 90k
01/2016 – 120k
01/2016 – 150k
02/2016 – 180k
04/2016 – 240k
04/2016 – 270k
06/2016 – 300k
10/2016 – 360k
11/2016 – 390k
02/2017 – 420k

The increase is very linear, which show streaming hasn’t been added late on its run. There is tons of international albums with figures ranging from 150k to 400k recently, on a market of Italy size, which is kind of doubtful. That Purpose sold roughly 3 times more during 2016 than during 2015 is also strongly inconsistent with its run elsewhere, which tend to suggest streaming has been added in early 2016. I’ll do additional checks on that matter since it looks like when my figures are slightly higher than the IFPI, Mexican sales is one of the reasons.

2. jDB says:

No lol he was never like Taylor ,.and local? haha nice joke,

My worlds sold 95m(with correct us sales) ,if we exclude my world ep ,then my world 2.0(studio album) sold around 7m or let’s say 6.6-6.8m ,3.3m came from us, so

50% from US vs 50% from other countries,

Believe 3.6m
47% US vs 53% other countries

(And us wasn’t even his biggest market, Sweden, Norway, Denmark were and possibly Latin America too)

Adele 25 (19m)
9m came from US

45% US vs 55% others

Yeah I know Adele is British, but us is biggest market so….
Not to mention Justin is Canadian,

While Taylor

Self titled
90% US vs 10% others

Fearless
75% US vs 25%

Speak now
85% US vs 15%

Red
65% US vs 35%

1989
60% US vs 40% other countries

8. Sophie says:

That is interesting to Know. How Lemonade topped 25 when Adele’s album sold 4 or 5 million un 2016 meanwhile Beyonce record goles to less than that.

1. Hi Sophie,

It is quite simple, Adele released her album in 2015 during the Christmas season. Tons of copies were shipped (sold to retailers), copies which got officially accounted for during 2015, even if some of them were sold to consumers during 2016. In the other side, all copies sold by Lemonade in 2016 were also shipped in 2016 obviously since it came out that year, which was enough to top shipments of Adele’s 25.

To resume:
Best selling album of 2016 in Industry terms (e.g. sales to retailers) = Beyonce’s Lemonade
Best selling album of 2016 for the general public (e.g. sales to consumers) = Adele’s 25

9. jDB says:

Sir @MJD ,thank you so much for your hard work ,really appreciate it,

“orphan album” which sold 1.5m ,is that never say never remixes? If yes, then it should have been be counted in my worlds’ total , never say never remixes is a remix album of my world 2.0 ,yes different titles ,but you can check their track lists,
And never say never single too, it was lead single of the ep,

And as someone already has told my worlds sold 5.5m in us not 4.9m.

With all correction ,my worlds should cross 18m ,right?

1. Hi jDB!

The “Orphan Album” is a folder which contains the value created by all songs that are not part of the original albums’ track lists. For example, Never Say Never remixes sales of 1,5 million are spread into My Worlds (1,14 million) and the Orphan Album (360k) because they are respectively responsible for 76% and 24% of its streams. You have all explanations in page 12.

It is difficult to tell the final total with corrections as the ratio of streams has been changed. Considering how much of an impact it does in the case of Justin, he will be one of the next ones updated completely!

10. RLAAMJR says:

Hi MJD, can you give us a list of Justin’s best selling singles?

11. RLAAMJR says:

The Purpose album already reached more than 5 billion streams on Spotify. We need an update as well as songs like Let Me Love You and Cold Water as well as the new ones like Despacito with Luis Fonsi , I’m The one with DJ Khaled and 2U with David Guetta.

1. Hi RLAAMJR,

Indeed, Justin Bieber is increasing at an outstanding pace at the moment. I was going to update it after the slow down of Purpose, but hten Let Me Love You and Cold Water took over. When those songs decreased, the new hits came out. He never stops. His streams are so big that as soon as I’ll update something it will get outdated! No need to say his YouTube views are also insane with 8 billion on the back of Purpose songs only.

The ratio was decreased since the posting of his articles but he is looking for nice gains still and a very promising future too!

1. RLAAMJR says:

He should stop releasing singles (including featuring) after “Friends” so you can give us an update soon and also, Justin should start recording for his next album. Hopefully, his next album will be released on the first quarter of 2018.

12. Anthony Blanchard says:

For RLAAMJR, Bieber biggest tracks:
1 2015 – Sorry [Purpose] – 3,070,000
2 2010 – Baby [My World / My World 2.0] – 2,740,000
3 2015 – What Do You Mean? [Purpose] – 2,720,000
4 2015 – Love Yourself [Purpose] – 2,660,000
5 2010 – Somebody To Love [My World / My World 2.0] – 2,210,000
6 2015 – Where Are Ü Now [Purpose] – 2,170,000
7 2010 – That Should Be Me [My World / My World 2.0] – 1,710,000
8 2012 – Boyfriend [Believe] – 1,610,000
9 2012 – Beauty and a Beat [Believe] – 1,550,000
10 2012 – As Long as You Love Me [Believe] – 1,510,000

Please take in consideration that these numbers have been calculated with figures from August 2016, with the old stream formule and without video streams.
You can be sure that Bieber figures will be updated soon!

1. RLAAMJR says:

Im confused. I remember united world chart and sorry and love yourself have between 8-9 million singles sold.

1. Hi RLAAMJR,

Remember figures posted by Anthony refer to equivalent album sales where 1 download is worth 0,15 (album) sales.

2. jDB says:

Anthony Blanchard, I am sure there should be “one time” instead of “that should be me”.
That should be me was just an album track

1. Anthony Blanchard says:

Hello jDB,

Here is the detail of the calculation for the 2 tracks:

– That Should Be Me:
* Album: 681k (7.7% of the streams of “My World/My World 2.0, which sold 8.8m)
* Other LPs: 870k (121k in “My World Acoustic” / 14k in “My Worlds: The Collection / 269k in “Never Say Never: The Remixes / 466k in “Never Say Never: The Movie”
* Physical single: 0k
* Digital single: 103k (15.2% of the 6.8m of the remaining tracks, and applying the 1/10 ratio)
* Streaming: 58k (only Spotify)

– One Time:
* Album: 751k (8.5% of the streams of “My World/My World 2.0, which sold 8.8m)
* Other LPs: 149k (134k in “My World Acoustic” / 15k in “My Worlds: The Collection”)
* Physical single: 30k (100k of real sales, and applying the 3/10 ratio)
* Digital single: 340k (3.4m of real sales, and applying the 1/10 ratio)
* Streaming: 64k (only Spotify)

So, “One Time was ahead of “TSBM” in all formats, except Other LPs, where it is far behind.
When we add all the figures together, we have:
* That Should Be Me: 1.71m
* One Time: 1.33m

3. RLAAMJR says:

Can i ask for the figures of these songs:

Truly, Madly Deeply by Savage Garden
Wherever You Will Go by The Calling
One oF Us by Joan Osborne
Macarena by Los Del Rios
Un-break My Heart by Toni Braxton

13. RLAAMJR says:

Thanks MJD but take your time. I can wait for the update. 🙂

Thank you Anthony for the list. So his biggest single is only 3m. 🙁

14. RLAAMJR says:

Which songs from Purpose albums have not been certified? just wondering cos ive heard most of the songs from that album were certified.

15. Terrance says:

Can we get an update on the purpose album figures

16. Generis says:

I was searching about his numbers and this article is the most accurate. He sold +27.5M album, that’s impressive for someone who debuted in 2010.
My worlds 9.5M sales
UTM 3.0M
Believe 3.6M
Purpose 6.0M
22.1M album from his studio ones.
I was reading some comments and i think Purpose is high, you use ifpi as receipt but they also says Believe was shipped (2012 3.0M) and (2013 1.6M) so i doubt it sold 4.6M to be honest, meanwhile your number for that album is more accurate.
Purpose is at +250k sales in japan, it sold 30k digital copies from november, 2016 to date after it’s peak (oricon started report digital sales in nov,2016) so 120k physical + 150k = 270k more accurate than 125k.

Purpose (my stimations)
America: 3,300M
US: 1.95M
Canada: 370k
Mexico: 400k
Brazil: 290k
Argentina: 75k
Columbia: 100k

Europe: 2,000M
UK: 915k
Germany: 190k
France: 80k
Spain: 100k
Italy: 60k
Denmark: 120k
Sweden: 120k
Netherlands: 100k
Austria: 60k
Poland: 50k
Ireland: 50k

Australia/NZ: 300k
Japan/asia: 350k
Total: 5,950M

1. Hi Generis,

Purpose shipped 3,1m units in 2015 and 1,3m in 2016, 4,4m up to 12/2016 then. How can it be on 5,95m? My figures were already too high due to Amprofon not communicating the inclusion of SPS on their certifications. You are including streams / SPS on most of your figures, e.g. for Mexico, Colombia, Poland, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands include a huge share of streams.

1. Generis says:

Mexico started included streaming in april 2017. All the certfications from the album are from december-january, previously to his shows in february, i remember that. As i said ifpi also shipped 4.6M with believe nd 3.5M with UTM then why your estimations are so low?…
I’m not including sps in any country except for (maybe) columbia. Denmark doesn’t use sps,the same with spain. I used your estimates for netherlands and still he’s really big in scandinavian countries..

1. Same as the previous answer, please check relevant market data for each country before making incorrect statements. It’s just nonsense to tell that a Scandinavian country doesn’t use SPS while they started doing it so many years ago.

The IFPI figure for Believe includes the Acoustic version while I have wrote them seperately, it is as simple as that. The IFPI is 100%, assuming they tell nonsense and believing everything posted on forums won’t give you an accurate picture of the reality.

1. generis says:

so only your statement are right? when i said scandinavians countries doesn’t use streams? last time i know denmark doesn’t use it.
well assuming ifpi is right, utm sold 2.8M in 2011 (according them). in the US as of january 2012 it was at 1.2M, now it’s at 1.6M. 2.8M + (let’s say 800k ww) = 3.6M..

since i know you will refuse.. i made this:
(https://ton.twitter.com/i/ton/data/dm/939231924022906884/939231905672810496/b0kYiiZM.jpg)

In 10 markets around the world: north America (mexico,canada), south america (brazil), europe (uk,france,spain,germany), oceania (Australia, nz) and asia (japan) justin sales rose around +60%.

Let’s say he increased (average) in the world +50% (compared to 1.9M believe sales outside US: 3600M – 1700M = 1900M) so 1900M (+50%) = 3800M.

so 1900M US purpose sales + 3.8M = 5.700.000M ww sales, more accurate than ifpi.

i mean the average in sales he increased was +60% (the measure was 10 markets in 5 continents). let’s say in the entire world was +50%.
5.7M-6M its closely to his real sales than ifpi numbers.

excuse me but is stupid thinking in some markets believe sold more than purpose.. when the average is that purpose increased by +50% in every market.

for example ”adele” the queen of albums sales decreased in every market. justin increased in every market.

the numbers and logic says purpose increased (average) +50% in sales compared to his previous album (believe) but ifpi says it only increased 20%. believe whatever you want.

2. It is not “my” statements which are right, it is accurate facts.

Now you go on mixing shipment data with retail sales. This can’t work. You are obviously scratching the surface of chart and sales. As soon as you post something claiming it is “more accurate than ifpi”, just understand that you are being ridiculously delusional. Learn first, speak second!

17. Generis says:

Why so low the sales from Purpose singles?
Love yourself:
US: 3.0M
SK: 2.0M
UK: 750k
Australia: 420k
Canada: 420k
Germany: 300k
Mexico: 300k
Denmark: 200k
France: 100k
Sweden: 150k
Italy: 100k
Spain: 100k
Japan: 100k
Total: 7,500,000M

Sorry: 6,800,000M
Wdym?: 5,500,000M
Waun: 4,000,000M

88M singles + 5.4M from my correction (Purpose singles) = 93.4M
Cold water: 3.0M
LMLY: 3.0M
I’m the one: 3.0M
Despacito (remix): 7.0M
2U: 850k
Friends: 800k – 1M (since it’s doing great in germany)
Total: +108M singles sold + 27M album = ~ 135,000,000 records

1. Hi again Generis,

You are mixing sales and streams for a lot of markets. There is absolutely no way LY sold 150k in Sweden or 200k in Denmark, markets were downloads are dead for years. Same with Mexico and Spain. Your figures for Germany, Canada, Australia, they all include streams. The same is true on all your “corrections” that only add errors really.

1. Generis says:

No, i’m not mixing nothing.
Denmark and spain doesn’t use streams.
Again wrong! Amprofon says mexico is growing in digital sales fast, it’s the only country from LA that buys music digitally.
Again wrong! LY it’s 4xP (digital) in canada (320,000) as of march,2016. LY smashed until june.
Again wrong! LY sold 240k in 2016 (germany) i’m sure it sold a lot in 2015 and even in 2017 was top 200 on iTunes.
Again wrong! LY with 270,000 sales in Australia still was #1 selling 16k per week. https://twitter.com/chartnews/status/691624555480223745

I have receipts, that’s why i disagre with your numbers.

1. Hi Generis,

You should check carefully chart rules rather than blindly believing that figures stated in “units” refer to digital sales. When the music industry refers to “digital”, it means downloads and streaming, and that’s streaming which is increasing fast. Australia includes streaming since the end of 2014. You claim that Denmark “doesn’t use stream”, while they represent nearly 80% of their market against 20% only for all downloads, CD and LP sales. In Canada, LY scanned 84k in 2015 and 263k in 2016, 347k by the end of that year. There is no official figure available for Germany, only estimates and certifications which both include streams.

Make sure to understand the said receipts as per the chart rules of each country elseway it gets quickly highly misleading.

1. generis says:

did you read the article to assume it’s units what increased? the ”apple” it’s the new trend in mexico, they buys music digitally more than streaming, amprofon themselves says it i the article they made.
even in 2012 he received a plaque for selling 300k downloads in singles, now it maybe around 500k. since he increased in digital downloads in every market (except us where sales are dying fast). so him selling +1M singles this time in mexico is accurate..
yes i know, but those refers to SALES. the source i showed you.
ok but you told me with ariana it doesn’t make any difference, justin has fans and he’s really big in scandinavians countries, maybe 200k it’s a lot but i think he sold more than 0 copies (your stimated)..
ok 350k in the end of 2016, for example love yourself did 2.7M in the us (as of dec, 2016) now it’s at 3M, it increased 10%.. if it did the same in canada it’s about the 400k downloads to date…

yes, there exist a chart about germany sales/streams. it sold 219,570 in 2016 (my bad about 240k number) it charted #9 of the biggest selling singles in 2016 in that country. i’m sure it’s at the 300k downloads so far. sorry ranked #59 selling 80,136 copies. (130k in 2015).
us: 3.0M
sk: 2M
uk: 750k
ca: 400k
aus: 400k
de: 300k
6.85M by far more than 5.6M, the same goes with sorry, wdym, etc.

2. Hi Generis,

It is painful to answer to people who constantly misquote everything, it really is a waste of time. Purpose is estimated at 40k in Sweden, not at 0 copy, which is already an awful lot in this day and age there. Same for Mexico, just check market figures rather than making uneducated claims. Then you go on quoting up to date figures while the article is more than 1 year old, that makes no sense. Get your facts right before posting wild figures as you are doing.

18. generis says:

i thought you were accurate but i was wrong..
anyways keep do your things, at the end no ones except chartforums will use your false information. meanwhile you heavily benefic others artist like (beyonce, one direction, etc) it’s quite ovbious you manipule others artist numbers, i mean did you say in others post ‘purpose’ didn’t sell digital copies in japan ”due” they doesn’t use it.. but the reality prove you wrong, the same with decreasing sales in the us to my worlds, his pathetics sales for purpose singles..

was a waste of time arguing with you.

1. Says the one who believes Mediatraffic is more accurate than the IFPI. Keep do your “things” too which seems to be making others waste time with your ignorance.

19. RLAAMJR. says:

Update for Justin Bieber’s CSPC Popularity Analysis please!