CSPC: Justin Bieber Popularity Analysis

Streaming Part 3 – Appendix

The Orphan Album of Justin Bieber is made up of three distinct set of tracks. First, the likes of Never Say Never that were added to the various remix / acoustic albums he released as exclusive songs. Second several collaborations a la #thatPOWER, although he hasn’t released that many so far. Third are all hits issued as his Journals during 2013 and 2014 when the artist dropped new songs from time to time on all digital platforms. Widely considered a hugely weak project, most of these songs register 8 digit streams to date.

This highlights one of the most unique achievements the singer reached which is topping the 10 million barrier with 85 out of all his 99 tracks available on Spotify. No other artist has managed such a widespread appeal on an entire catalog that includes 50 songs or more.

One last notice, both Cold Water and Let Me Love You just began to hit streaming platforms and are killing them at the moment. It is already a given that both will crack at least 300 million streams within a 12-month window, the only question is how much higher can they go?

42 thoughts on “CSPC: Justin Bieber Popularity Analysis”

  1. He’s an all around force. Strong album sales, strong digital sales, and extraordinary streaming numbers. He’s definitely up there (with Bruno) as the biggest male artist this decade.

  2. 3,88 billion streams from Purpose= 6,7 million albums? Why? I thought that 1500 streams, one album. Therefore 3,88 billion streams, 2,6 million albums.I dont understand your method.

    1. Hi Megatrix!

      The figure of 3,88 billion refers to Spotify streams only, it gets extrapolated in order to make it a comprehensive figure over all streaming platform, then only afterwards the total is divided by 1500 🙂

      This extrapolation is currently being reviewed with new IFPI figures!

      1. Thanks for answering me. You’re very kind. But I still dont understand your method. If Porpuse has sold 6.7 million albums and an album equals 1500 streams, porpuse has achieved 10,050,000,000 streams? I find this implausible. Did you also add his streams from youtube?

        1. Sorry. I said that Purpose has sold 6.7 million albums, but I wanted to say that 6.7 million of their sales are from streaming according to your data.

        2. It was calculated on the back of IFPI reported as mentioned in that section introduction:
          Below table lists Spotify streaming of all songs from the five albums we are studying. The Comprehensive Streaming is reached by multiplying Spotify figures by 68/26. In fact, as shown in IFPI 2015 Report, there were 68 million paying subscribers to all streaming platforms by the end of 2015. While the exact count of Spotify paying subscribers by the end of 2015 is unknown, that figure reached 20 million in June 2015 and 30 million in March 2016, thus an estimated 26 million is used as of the end of 2015.

          As Spotify share happens to be bigger now, the total will be downgraded when applying the new methods that will be published for the first time from Miley Cyrus article next week!

          1. Hey MJDangerous.
            I love all your charts, but I think your comprehensive streaming fails to take into account free streams.

            For example the streaming stats take into account all the free streamers too.
            https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/9to5mac.com/2016/06/20/spotify-apple-music-users/amp/

            There are 100 million subscribers on Spotify but only 30m are paid. Whereas for the other 40m or so on other services they’re just paid subscribers. Like Apple Music, tidal, etc just have paid subscribers. So Spotify definitely represents a larger share of the market.

            Please respond. I’m a huge fan haha.

          2. Hi Jake!

            Yes, I’m perfecly aware the free-paid users ratio is different accross all streaming platforms. Spotify and Deezer have many free users while others not so much or not at all. This being said, the new methodology (not the one quoted here for Justin Bieber) uses the average, in the end there is no real impact. As per leaked documents of paid royalties, the ratio between all platforms is 1 to 1,3, in spite of the free streamers they pay roughly the same average. This is due to several reasons, including the price which is on average lower at other platforms since their share of new users is larger and those new users have a huge majority of people who subscribed during a promotional offer.

            About your figures, they are outdated, Spotify reached 50 million paid subscribers by early March, like 54 million now considering the increase pace lately. The total number of users of such platforms is 212 million. Everything is detailed in this update.

        1. Hi Reimes,

          Why using SPS? Mixing downloads and streams would barely result in a waste of information. Plus, each country has a different formula for SPS, it wouldn’t make sense to combine them all as likes to likes. It is much better to have both downloads and streams and then apply one unique and consistent conversion method for all artists in all countries.

  3. Just to clarify I meant as in for the 3.88B streams was achieved by a combination of the 30m paid subscribers and 70m free subscribers. So in total across all subscription services (not including YT and video streams) there’s around 140m subscribers of which about 100m are on Spotify

    1. Hi Jake,

      For audio streams, yes! Then converted into album sales with 1500/1 ratio. YouTube views are added on their side with a convertion ratio of 11750/1.

      1. What about features?
        I understand that the all time hot 100 charts use a 70/30 ratio for lead artists to features? Would you ever consider implementing something like that?

  4. Hi, according to billboard my world 2.0 sold 3.330M and my world EP sold 2.100M, around 5.500M, i think now could be more or the same.
    he received a plaque in argentina for selling 40k copies (2011) for my worlds (that was at the susana gimenez program) tbh i think he sold more than 100k year to date

    so if you fix it, the total album sales for my worlds could rise to 9.5m-10m?

    **btw others release mean my world acoustic + my world the collection?

    1. Hi Carlos,

      You should be more explicit as to your sales figures refer to the US or the World, up to which date etc. You seem to be mixing a US Soundscan figure for My World 2.0 with a guess estimate for the EP Worldwide. In fact, the page of My World already includes the EP version.

      Figure for Argentina is displayed as Not Available because there is not enough precise information to commit on an exact figure, it doesn’t mean 0 has been accounted for. I used 120k on my calculations sheet for it.

      Other releases are displayed on page 12, it includes all music videos, compilations, remixes and live sets.

  5. bieber was the male taylor swift tbh, he was so local until purpose

    purpose i think sales are around 6-6.5m
    * japan: physical sales 120k, with digital sales 180k -200k or more, he’s still charting in top 5 japan itunes.
    * mexico: sales last update (before he was touring in mexico wich give him rebound in sales) were 390k, he now round 450-500k
    *UK: last update in sales was at 1.12M, now could be around 1.2M
    * US: last time was 1.820m (nielsen music year end), but he received huge rebound for superbowl commercial, maybe 1.9M now.
    *Canada: last certification update was april, 2016 (320k) but after that he stayed 10 weeks in the top 5 and 25 weeks in top 10, i think he sold around 400k-450k or more,
    taking into account was ahead adele.

    1. Hi again Carlos,

      You are mixing streaming into various of your figures, streaming which is already accounted for distinctively. In fact, figures in the article are even too high as the album shipped 3,1 million copies last year and less than 1,4 million this year as per the IFPI, meaning it is at most on 4,5 million to date.

      1. albums shipped doesn’t mean how many you sold lol.
        i remember that HDD did an article in 2015 about 1d vs jb and showed that mostly jb US sales were digitally. that prove that even 4.5m or 5.2m is nothing considering he sold really huge digitally.

        japan, mexico and the us are 100% PURE sales.
        uk, in a article when he announce second uk leg, appears purpose sold 600k copies (physical), taking in considering he’s really huge digital, around sold to date 950k-1M pure. 1.2M with streams.

        canada isn’t huge in streaming, if it sold 400k still is huge than your ”prediction”

        1. Hi Carlos,

          Once again, the article is from August 2016, I hope you realize it isn’t possible to update on a daily basis all articles from the website.

          As for copies sold digitally, they are obviously already taken into account by the IFPI. iTunes is irrelevant in Japan. Mexican certifications do include streaming, so does Canadian one. Purpose sold 240k in 2015 and 88k in 2016 as per Soundscan in Canada, which means 325,000 shipped by 08/2016 made perfect sense.

          The album also ‘sold’ way more than 200k in streams in the UK. By March 2016 it was on 195,484 streaming sales out of 891,075 in total. From April, its streaming sales were already representing more than 50% of its weekly total thus streams represent from 350,000 to 375,000 units of the 1,15 million sales to date.

          1. ifpi isn’t really accurate but ok, according to them lemonade in 2016 sold more than 25.
            digital sales are growing fast in japan, even are in the same level (2017 climate) as the US.
            No, amprofon started to include streaming recently (april 2017)
            ok then your prediction about canada is accurate. now 350k
            official chart in 2016 (november) showed that purpose total streaming was 313k, the album total sales was at 1,123,000.
            830k
            -850k pure sales to date. then your prediction was almost exact haha my bad.

          2. IFPI is 100% accurate. They deal with shipment (as mentioned, this does include digital sales) which is why Lemonade topped 25 as 25 sold in 2016 many copies which had been shipped in 2015.

            Mexico failed to communicate well on their inclusion of streaming. It appears clear they have been incorporating it for long, here is Purpose history:
            12/2016 – 90k
            01/2016 – 120k
            01/2016 – 150k
            02/2016 – 180k
            04/2016 – 240k
            04/2016 – 270k
            06/2016 – 300k
            10/2016 – 360k
            11/2016 – 390k
            02/2017 – 420k

            The increase is very linear, which show streaming hasn’t been added late on its run. There is tons of international albums with figures ranging from 150k to 400k recently, on a market of Italy size, which is kind of doubtful. That Purpose sold roughly 3 times more during 2016 than during 2015 is also strongly inconsistent with its run elsewhere, which tend to suggest streaming has been added in early 2016. I’ll do additional checks on that matter since it looks like when my figures are slightly higher than the IFPI, Mexican sales is one of the reasons.

    2. No lol he was never like Taylor ,.and local? haha nice joke,

      My worlds sold 95m(with correct us sales) ,if we exclude my world ep ,then my world 2.0(studio album) sold around 7m or let’s say 6.6-6.8m ,3.3m came from us, so

      50% from US vs 50% from other countries,

      Believe 3.6m
      47% US vs 53% other countries

      (And us wasn’t even his biggest market, Sweden, Norway, Denmark were and possibly Latin America too)

      Adele 25 (19m)
      9m came from US

      45% US vs 55% others

      Yeah I know Adele is British, but us is biggest market so….
      Not to mention Justin is Canadian,

      While Taylor

      Self titled
      90% US vs 10% others

      Fearless
      75% US vs 25%

      Speak now
      85% US vs 15%

      Red
      65% US vs 35%

      1989
      60% US vs 40% other countries

  6. That is interesting to Know. How Lemonade topped 25 when Adele’s album sold 4 or 5 million un 2016 meanwhile Beyonce record goles to less than that.

    1. Hi Sophie,

      It is quite simple, Adele released her album in 2015 during the Christmas season. Tons of copies were shipped (sold to retailers), copies which got officially accounted for during 2015, even if some of them were sold to consumers during 2016. In the other side, all copies sold by Lemonade in 2016 were also shipped in 2016 obviously since it came out that year, which was enough to top shipments of Adele’s 25.

      To resume:
      Best selling album of 2016 in Industry terms (e.g. sales to retailers) = Beyonce’s Lemonade
      Best selling album of 2016 for the general public (e.g. sales to consumers) = Adele’s 25

  7. Sir @MJD ,thank you so much for your hard work ,really appreciate it,

    “orphan album” which sold 1.5m ,is that never say never remixes? If yes, then it should have been be counted in my worlds’ total , never say never remixes is a remix album of my world 2.0 ,yes different titles ,but you can check their track lists,
    And never say never single too, it was lead single of the ep,

    And as someone already has told my worlds sold 5.5m in us not 4.9m.

    With all correction ,my worlds should cross 18m ,right?

    1. Hi jDB!

      The “Orphan Album” is a folder which contains the value created by all songs that are not part of the original albums’ track lists. For example, Never Say Never remixes sales of 1,5 million are spread into My Worlds (1,14 million) and the Orphan Album (360k) because they are respectively responsible for 76% and 24% of its streams. You have all explanations in page 12.

      It is difficult to tell the final total with corrections as the ratio of streams has been changed. Considering how much of an impact it does in the case of Justin, he will be one of the next ones updated completely!

  8. The Purpose album already reached more than 5 billion streams on Spotify. We need an update as well as songs like Let Me Love You and Cold Water as well as the new ones like Despacito with Luis Fonsi , I’m The one with DJ Khaled and 2U with David Guetta.

    1. Hi RLAAMJR,

      Indeed, Justin Bieber is increasing at an outstanding pace at the moment. I was going to update it after the slow down of Purpose, but hten Let Me Love You and Cold Water took over. When those songs decreased, the new hits came out. He never stops. His streams are so big that as soon as I’ll update something it will get outdated! No need to say his YouTube views are also insane with 8 billion on the back of Purpose songs only.

      The ratio was decreased since the posting of his articles but he is looking for nice gains still and a very promising future too!

      1. He should stop releasing singles (including featuring) after “Friends” so you can give us an update soon and also, Justin should start recording for his next album. Hopefully, his next album will be released on the first quarter of 2018.

  9. For RLAAMJR, Bieber biggest tracks:
    1 2015 – Sorry [Purpose] – 3,070,000
    2 2010 – Baby [My World / My World 2.0] – 2,740,000
    3 2015 – What Do You Mean? [Purpose] – 2,720,000
    4 2015 – Love Yourself [Purpose] – 2,660,000
    5 2010 – Somebody To Love [My World / My World 2.0] – 2,210,000
    6 2015 – Where Are Ü Now [Purpose] – 2,170,000
    7 2010 – That Should Be Me [My World / My World 2.0] – 1,710,000
    8 2012 – Boyfriend [Believe] – 1,610,000
    9 2012 – Beauty and a Beat [Believe] – 1,550,000
    10 2012 – As Long as You Love Me [Believe] – 1,510,000

    Please take in consideration that these numbers have been calculated with figures from August 2016, with the old stream formule and without video streams.
    You can be sure that Bieber figures will be updated soon!

    1. Im confused. I remember united world chart and sorry and love yourself have between 8-9 million singles sold.

    2. Anthony Blanchard, I am sure there should be “one time” instead of “that should be me”.
      That should be me was just an album track

      1. Hello jDB,

        Here is the detail of the calculation for the 2 tracks:

        – That Should Be Me:
        * Album: 681k (7.7% of the streams of “My World/My World 2.0, which sold 8.8m)
        * Other LPs: 870k (121k in “My World Acoustic” / 14k in “My Worlds: The Collection / 269k in “Never Say Never: The Remixes / 466k in “Never Say Never: The Movie”
        * Physical single: 0k
        * Digital single: 103k (15.2% of the 6.8m of the remaining tracks, and applying the 1/10 ratio)
        * Streaming: 58k (only Spotify)

        – One Time:
        * Album: 751k (8.5% of the streams of “My World/My World 2.0, which sold 8.8m)
        * Other LPs: 149k (134k in “My World Acoustic” / 15k in “My Worlds: The Collection”)
        * Physical single: 30k (100k of real sales, and applying the 3/10 ratio)
        * Digital single: 340k (3.4m of real sales, and applying the 1/10 ratio)
        * Streaming: 64k (only Spotify)

        So, “One Time was ahead of “TSBM” in all formats, except Other LPs, where it is far behind.
        When we add all the figures together, we have:
        * That Should Be Me: 1.71m
        * One Time: 1.33m

    3. Can i ask for the figures of these songs:

      Truly, Madly Deeply by Savage Garden
      Wherever You Will Go by The Calling
      One oF Us by Joan Osborne
      Macarena by Los Del Rios
      Un-break My Heart by Toni Braxton

  10. Thanks MJD but take your time. I can wait for the update. 🙂

    Thank you Anthony for the list. So his biggest single is only 3m. 🙁

  11. Which songs from Purpose albums have not been certified? just wondering cos ive heard most of the songs from that album were certified.

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